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Monetizing the virus
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Nik
(last edited Mar 13, 2020 12:12PM)
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Mar 13, 2020 12:02PM
Met someone today, who claims to have invested 0.5 mln USD in oil companies shares, as oil prices plummeted. My impression he was exaggerating the scope, but in general, times of great economic turbulence bring about all kind of gambles. And if one half of the population speaks of dangers, maybe another - of opportunities. Is it time for a defensive approach or not necessarily? Will toilet paper manufacturers rule the world or aviation will be back and big time? What do you think?
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It's a brave investor buying right now.Markets have wiped out the last two years of capital growth. I doubt very much that we are in for 'V' shaped recovery. More like a depression.
Count me 'bearish.'
I may be wrong, but it seems like a good time to buy stocks.
Buy if you want to keep for 2-3 years. Buy if you want to get the so called dead cat bounce . Buy if you can afford to lose the money.Of course anyone who has savings and pension portfolios is already in the market. Maybe top up that 401k for my US colleagues or pension rather than direct into stocks.
Anything else is buying a lottery ticket
My view is to hold what you have if they are any good, and there will be a good time to buy, but not yet. The markets are going down for some time because nobody knows how this is going to play out, and only too many have to sell stuff to meet margin calls. There is still scope to short. But in the not too distant future there will be real bargains, provided you are prepared to hold. I would stay out of airlines because they are going to get pounded and some won't survive.The problem here is there are two causes. The market needed correcting for over-exuberance, and this virus is closing down economic activity. A number of businesses will be carrying too much debt to survive, and what comprises "too much" depends on how long this continues.
Dudes cleaned out stores, buying 17,000 bottles of sanitizer for resale: https://wgntv.com/news/brothers-buy-1...legit biz initiative or a little less so, what do you think?
My guess is sanitizer manufacture will increase and it will be available. As for these turkeys, I would suggest the Heydrich solution.Also, most sanitisers only work poorly against bacteria and not significantly against viruses
Well, that's disappointing. What will kill viruses?
That is an interesting question. The problem is more complicated by the fact you don't want it to damage you. Seaweed polysaccharides that are sulphated have antiviral effects, but if you eat them, they don't get absorbed into the body. Maybe a defence against norovirus?
Stock exchanges seem to dance their regular crisis dance, where a general downward direction is at times reversed by buyers who think the markets or industries are low enough for shopping
Not everything's going down though, stocks of companies like Zoom, for example, appreciated almost 100% from the beginning of the year..
Stock markets are the long term. Unless you know how to play the game, do not jump in for the quick buck. This too shall pass and all will return to normal faster that one may think.
Papaphilly wrote: "Stock markets are the long term. Unless you know how to play the game, do not jump in for the quick buck. This too shall pass and all will return to normal faster that one may think."I m not entirely sure. I agree the virus issue will be dealt with, but I suspect much in the tourist industry will emerge quite differently, I suspect the "just in time" philosophy will be replaced by slightly more strategic thinking, and something has to be done about the huge debts being incurred, and whatever that is, I suspect there will be a bit of hurt around that. Some recovery will be quick, but maybe not back to where we were.
Ian wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "Stock markets are the long term. Unless you know how to play the game, do not jump in for the quick buck. This too shall pass and all will return to normal faster that one may th..."People will travel, it might be slower to start up again, but it will. Just in time is going to change just a bit, but not allot. Memories are short and lessons go unlearned. You can buy stockpiles now, but will you pay for them a second time when they are not cheap and require both storage and maintenance costs? I am betting against that one. you might see m ore preppers over time.
I wonder if they develop a vaccine, will the anti-vaxers go and get it.....
To my mind the number one way to monetize the virus is to stand in front of the wave of 'PORK,' emanating from the US Congress/Senate/White House.The 4th stimulus bill is already in the works.
It seems that every politician is lining up to attach their pet projects, personal grind-axes, or meet the needs of their 'real,' sponsors (as opposed to their constituents) with as much pork as they can garner.
Let it be said, 'Never waste a good crisis.'
For Example: http://www.crfb.org/blogs/loosening-s...
Noting that Pork has bi-partisan support.
Graeme wrote: "TNoting that Pork has bi-partisan support. ..."No, Our side has to meet its dire staits needs and their sides is pork. Get it right....8^)
Graeme wrote: "To my mind the number one way to monetize the virus is to stand in front of the wave of 'PORK,' emanating from the US Congress/Senate/White House.The 4th stimulus bill is already in the works.
I..."
:-/ Good to see the relief targetted at those that need it most
Yesterday, it occurred to me to wonder how Russia might be taking advantage of this crisis. I have no idea, haven't even seen any numbers from them for the virus.
Leave OPEC, crash the oil price, and put the US shale oil companies out of business.Then come in later and pick up market share.
Russia is in the weird position of having little or no national debt, in part because nobody would lend to them. They have the virus and I think they are trying to control it just like everyone else. If you can believe their figures they are doing above average, but it is still hurting them.
Don't see any advantage surfacing for Russia, at least as yet, but China seems to be back on its feet swiftly and will probably recover from the economic damage speedier than others
I think the next wave of the virus is already rearing it's head in China.
NYT article on connections to Pharma companies via direct shareholding then mentioning repeatedly the drug - any guesses who...
Philip wrote: "NYT article on connections to Pharma companies via direct shareholding then mentioning repeatedly the drug - any guesses who..."The link, pls.. ?
Philip wrote: "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/us..."Thanks, an interesting insight into an expectedly controversial issue ... At this stage a lot that is being done in corona's context is a gamble
In my opinion, the criticism of Trump and the doctors prescribing hydroxychlorquinine is totally unfair. There is clear evidence that the closely related chlorquinine workss at Wuhan based on result, and the Chinese have published a prescription procedure, and details of under what circumstances to use it.The biggest problem with hydroxychlorquinine is there is not enough of it. The world makes about 25 tonne/ annum and that is mainly being used to treat lupus and rheumatoid arthritis. The multis cannot be bothered upping production, and/or do not have the means to do so, due to "just in time" philosophy. (The world used to make an order of magnitude more, but malaria has got used to it, so it is no longer prescribed for that.)
Ian wrote: "In my opinion, the criticism of Trump and the doctors prescribing hydroxychlorquinine is totally unfair. There is clear evidence that the closely related chlorquinine workss at Wuhan based on resul..."Much of this is trying to tar Trump with any brush at all. No matter what he does, it will not be enough and if they can hurt him, they will.
Ian wrote: "In my opinion, the criticism of Trump and the doctors prescribing hydroxychlorquinine is totally unfair. There is clear evidence that the closely related chlorquinine workss at Wuhan based on resul..."This isn't about fair. It's about ratings. Matt Taibbi lays it out in his book, Hate Inc.: Why Today's Media Makes Us Despise One Another. In order to keep you watching the commercials, the media need to keep you mad about trivia. Taibbi described how they do this with "The Ten Rules Of Hate".
1."There are only two ideas"
You are either a Democrat or a Republican. There is no other. (Libertarians are like Bigfoot, people talk about it, but we all know better.)
2."The two ideas are in permanent conflict"
There can be no compromise with the enemy. In the end there can be only one. Pray that it isn't the commies/fascists!
3."Hate people, not institutions"
How dare you think that the Legislature has ceded too much power to the Executive Branch, creating a quasi-tyranny which needs to be reined in! Orange Man Bad!
4."Everything is someone else's fault"
Fox: Obama cut funding to the CDC
MSNBC: Trump is responsible for the weak response to Covid
5."Nothing is everyone's fault"
Fact: The strategic and economic threats from a pandemic have been well known since at least the Spanish Flu, but both Democratic and Republican governments have largely ignored the issue.
News:
6."Root, don't think"
The Dems are going to get him! Impeach! Impeach!
7."No switching teams"
"Traitor!"
8."The other side is literally Hitler"
Does this one need an explanation?
9."In the fight against Hitler, everything is permitted"
Using a paid hit piece, which you know only has a veneer of legitimacy due to a partisan shell game, to smear a sitting President as a treasonous lover of "golden showers"? Journalistic ethics, baby!
10."Feel Superior"
https://youtu.be/LX3IFGdx-cY
J., there is no really good answer to all that :-(
J. wrote: "In order to keep you watching the commercials, the media need to keep you mad about trivia. Taibbi described how they do this with "The Ten Rules Of Hate"...."A "nice" manual of a media hit(wo)man!
However, we need not to confuse it with healthy/constructive criticism and legit pluralism. It isn't that hard to see beyond the stereotypes or veneer they'd want us to group behind. Just weigh everything by its own value. Not every idea that is voiced by the supposedly "other" camp or unaffiliated is bad, just because they voice it and not everything's originating from supposedly "your" side is impeccable.
Agree with the general idea though that consuming everything coming from the media at its face value distorts the reality
That's why I watch an hour of news in the morning and spend the rest of the day doing things I enjoy or that have to be done around the house. I stay busy and don't think too much about the virus until the next morning. After all, what can I do about it except try not to get it or pass it on.
A few new articleshttps://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m...
and opinion
https://respectfulinsolence.com/2020/...
The Chinese in Wuhan have stated that chloroquine, in a specific dosage, has given good results on patients for which all else was failing.Let m suggest what you will think if you have the virus, pneumonia is setting in, things are getting worse, and they won't give it to you because there have been no double-blind clinical trials. And if your spouse is dying of pneumonia, treatment is started, he/she dies, and it is then explained that h/she got the placebo, what will you think. Yes, they can study it for years, while you die in days. When the choice is between it or death what do you choose?
As for the guy who complained about side-effects after taking wildly more than the recommended dose, that is irrelevant. Anything can b dangerous in excess.
I agree. Docs should be able to prescribe it in serious cases.
The information from Wuhan was mostly on people with mild symptoms, who may or may not have had COVID-19. That's the problem with the info information. And Plaquenil's side effects when used in combination with Azithromycin were increased significantly.
Thanks for the info, Leonie. What about the chloroquine? Any info there?
Leonie, I have read the medical report provided by the Chinese, and referred by our Royal Society s it will no be a junk report. The chloroquine was prescribed to some extent as a last resort on those with developing pneumonia. The azithromycin is, of course, an antibiotic, and that was presumably given to deal with adventitious bacterial infections.The document was quite long, and offered by the Chinese so others would not have to relearn what they had learned.
I have not seen any reports regarding last resorts, only ones that were controlled trials. I'd be interested in seeing what you've read.
To the writers here, are you seeing increased movement on your books due to people at home with nothing to do? Especially those in Select since readers can get a free 2 month trial membership if they're not already enrolled - people get to read in their spare time without spending the money they're not making.
I have a book launch next Friday (online now of necessity), so I may have some more info for you in a week!
J.J. wrote: "To the writers here, are you seeing increased movement on your books due to people at home with nothing to do? Especially those in Select since readers can get a free 2 month trial membership if th..."No and not particularly increased take up on 3 books I have done free days on. General sales may be up but personal just as hard to get noticed and mainstream continue to advertise
J.J. wrote: "To the writers here, are you seeing increased movement on your books due to people at home with nothing to do? Especially those in Select since readers can get a free 2 month trial membership if th..."Minimal, hardly worth mentioning.
Visibility remains a major problem...
Procurement seems to be a major problem: https://thecity.nyc/2020/04/millions-...To sign a multi-million contract is one thing, while to deliver is yet another
