Green Group discussion
Climate Change
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Flooding
There are 2 paths we can go on, one is filled with words, mostly useless in these times where the weather has gone from a beneficial force to an adversary with no options to change, The other path is actions, which is beginning to get overburdened with never ending responses to something that happened yesterday, leaving prevention out as an option.
Tropical Storm Imelda. Isolated areas in East Texas have received 10 to 20 inches of rain. Many locations are looking at 5 to 10 inches. Houston is in the center of the area experiencing the heavy rain. That area was experiencing a drought.https://abc13.com/weather/more-downpo...
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weathe...
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A British couple saw their house washed away by a river.
https://www.costa-news.com/costa-blan...
" Three people died in Orihuela, Redován and Dolores as a result of the flooding – and thousands of people were evacuated, several hundred by boat or helicopter, "
https://www.costa-news.com/costa-blan...
Since we have erected this huge global society, the events can be looked at in a global fashion. The natural events not going in our favor aren't quite daily yet, but it won't be long before it becomes evident that more is "washing away" by whatever means than is staying in place. We haven't been updating/maintaining/rebuilding the global infrastructure that already exists. It is old and wasn't built to withstand the new climate conditions. Plenty of new stuff in new places is being built, but is that being built to survive the new building standards set up by the changing climate.
2nd '500-year rainfall' in 2 years will cause $8 billion in damages, AccuWeather predicts2Nd 500 year event in 2 years---- when will the idiocy stop in the news rooms--- the 500 year, 1000 year plan, any plan based on old events is now worthless. How many more times do they have to see it? Will they ever see it? Or will they continue to use the old records to make fake news so we can all pretend it's only a bad dream and will go away by itself. And yes, it will eventually go away by itself, but only after the poles have finished melting and the atmosphere has stabilized with the new average temperatures and the new moisture content of the atmosphere. Could be a 100 years, or less, or a thousand years or more. Whatever happens, those storm charts that predict how often certain size storms will happen are totally worthless now.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weathe...
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weathe...
Because of India's large population, more people are currently at immediate risk due to weather events than in other locations. This is a temporary situation as the weather continues to ramp up it's intensity around the world. We're all standing in the same line, it just happens to be a very long line. Unfortunately for us, the line travels around in a big circle coming back on itself, no beginning or end, so no one is getting off easy. All that is happening now is that we are getting a preshow of what is in store for everyone.https://e360.yale.edu/features/as-the...
People who moved into the Houston area recently don't have flood insurance because it takes time to get a flood insurance policy. Many of the areas flooding in the Houston area missed the flooding from previous storms. And once again, this wasn't even a big storm, but any rain storm nowadays can carry way above it's normal rainfall expectations. The rain totals for some places are 40 inches already. These totals also place Imelda in the five heaviest tropical cyclone rain events in the Lower 48 states.
https://weather.com/safety/floods/new...
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https://www.theguardian.com/environme...
What will it take to make the city create suitable, flood-proofed and sea level rise proofed housing?There is only one real solution and that is to move off the coast. If we want healthy oceans we needs healthy shore lines, fix two things at the same time. When a storm is stuck in the water, replenishing its lost energy, and moves slowly along the coast line, you will get storm surges, damaging winds, and lots of rain. Only a bunker can stand up to that kind of bombardment, which is only going to get stronger in the very near future.
The house that was built in the Florida panhandle that took the direct hit from the hurricane that was still standing intact afterwards, its foundation, walls and roof were still there. It was built like a bunker with concrete foundation type walls that went up 2 stories. It was a very simple design and expensive to build. But the inside of the house was still damaged, windows knocked out, water got in, the wiring had to be replaced, utility equipment for maintaining the house and household appliances, lighting, all had to be replaced.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/201...
Building on flood plains is named as a factor in the hospitals being flooded - and evacuated. Also a prison had to be emptied of hundreds of prisoners.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/as-the...
" Those changes are not fully understood. Observations have shown a decline in mean monsoon rainfall since the 1950s partly due to the rapid warming of the Indian Ocean, which weakens monsoon circulation. The conversion of forests to farmland is also reducing evapotranspiration, which contributes significantly to rainfall, especially in the latter half of the monsoon season. But this century, an increase in land warming appears to be pulling in more moisture from the ocean and reviving the overall monsoon — at least for now.
As important as total rainfall is the distribution of that precipitation. Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, said that in parts of India, “what we are seeing is that there are more frequent heavy rainfall events as well as dry spells, and fewer moderate rainfall events.” "
That article also carries the warning:
" “Hydro-meteorological events are on the rise,” says Muralee Thummarukudy, operations manager at the crisis management branch of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). “But in India, especially, more people are also living in vulnerable areas and leading more affluent lifestyles than before. So more individual and community resources are at risk.” "
In other words, if this is the first time you've owned a car, you're likely to be parking it in a place where it will get washed away.
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900 prisoners evacuated. Can you imagine? Where would you put them with all the other refugees from the water?
The infrastructure in the newly upraised areas was simple and usually made of wood which could easily be replaced. It was almost disposable. The roads are no where near being super paved highways so it is easier to repair them when damaged. But now all that is changing.
The current coastal storm has a name now, Melissa, because it has features that make it more than an ordinary storm. It has a eye pattern which rain bands are going around but the eye is cold, it is not warm water like a regular tropical storm or hurricane. It has also increased in strength in the cold Atlantic where those conditions would normally weaken a storm with a warm water eye. The storm has stayed out in the ocean off the coast. What would have normally been a widespread rain event was only rain in limited areas. It will do nothing to change the recent drought conditions. The storm is heading east, towards Europe.Because the winds did reach the shore the storm did raise the high tide levels along the coast. Minor flooding in some areas which drained back out to sea as the tide receded. In some areas not all the water receded so the next higher tide floods the areas even more. This is all happening in slow motion. For people who elevated their houses on stilts there seemed to be no problems until they realized that the roads were not also elevated which made access to their houses not as easy as it used to be. The water flooding the street is salt water so it is not a good idea to drive through it.
Typhoon Hagibis. One area had 37 inches of rain. Some areas haven't had this much storm damage in 60 years. The storm surge was not as bad as predicted. Some areas had considerable amounts of flooding from overflowing rives. With all the blue tarps on the roofs in Japan, it looks like Puerto Rico. They haven't been able to keep up with the damage they keep receiving from the storms.Typhoon Hagibis came ashore Saturday evening and left early Sunday. It went from a tropical storm to Cat 5 hurricane strength in a day. They haven't had a storm this powerful since 1991. Some of the gauges monitoring the Fukushima water were showing irregular readings probably from all water running through the area. Some areas hit by a typhoon in September received additional damage.
Some areas in the country side are expecting more flooding and landslides in the next few days. One area with storm damage also had an earthquake. The geological structure of the island increases the damage from water runoff and landslides. One thing that can be expected is that this is not the last storm, nor will it be the strongest storm that Japan will experience in the near future. These storms are impacting Japan's industrial output and will continue to do so.
At least 35 killed and 17 missing after Typhoon Hagibis tears through countryhttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/201...
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The death toll is now at 66 people.In 2017, Atlantic hurricanes caused $230 billion in damage, mostly in the United States. Last year, typhoons in the Pacific caused record amounts of damage in Asian countries, topping $30 billion, according to the global reinsurance giant Munich Re. Those numbers are only going to increase.
https://www.npr.org/2019/10/14/770031...
The highest toll was in Fukushima prefecture north of Tokyo, a largely agricultural area where the Abukuma River burst its banks in at least 14 places. That is also where the flooded reactors are.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/1...
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https://www.independent.ie/irish-news...
When motorways are built, the huge footing they require compacts the earth and blocks a natural water drainage flow. Some motorways are placed over an existing roadway and some are made fresh through fields. The water may back up on one side of the new road as it used to flow through the field.
It is coming to that point where there will be bands of rain embedded in every storm that will cause at least a small area (or larger) to temporarily flood from the runoff. After a few hours it will be back to normal, in the meantime we will sit there and wait for the inconvenient reminder to take our time to drain away. This is mainly caused by the design of the roadways and developments which never took extreme run off into consideration. Now that it is built, it can't be easily changed. No idea if elevating everything, turning the area into a big drain off, would fix the time out problem. Perhaps water tight vehicles would solve the problem.
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Deluged bullet trains show power of nature over modernizationDebate time is now officially over. How to respond is now the current topic, and that doesn't mean going green.
In the land of bullet trains, the to do list to prepare for the continue safe use of Japan's infrastructure is staggering without weather related events. The article doesn't say if the submerged tracks will be safe for high speed trains to use without work being done on them.
They are beginning to think of permanently relocating people out of vulnerable areas. It is getting too costly to fix up areas that keep getting washed out. This is only the beginning of what will become a world wide trend, refugee citizens inside their own countries.
https://japantoday.com/category/natio...
Tropical Storm Nestor is heading towards the Florida panhandle, which got hit by Hurricane Micheal a year ago, Oct 10. There hasn't been a named tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico this late in the year since 1985.
While it is not a hurricane, there is still the water to contend with. The pictures on the news showed areas on the panhandle that hadn't been rebuilt yet. Now they are getting another damaging storm going over areas that still haven't been rebuilt since last year. This the US, not some part of the world with a low key economy. Left over damage from previous storms not rebuilt needs some kind of name to signify that it is piling up, not going away.
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/weath...
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I can't see that site as I'm in Europe. I'll check around.
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https://www.cbsnews.com/video/tropica...
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https://www.ajc.com/weather/saturday-...
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https://eu.tallahassee.com/story/news...
As I get weather off the Atlantic I tend not to hear about the Pacific coastline weather very often. When you said "in the Gulf of Mexico," Robert, I tended to picture the Atlantic coastline, so the visuals of the real situation are helpful.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation...
I also noticed:
" In New Orleans, winds hampered crews that were trying to place explosives to topple to damaged construction cranes towering over a partially collapse hotel project at the edge of the French Quarter. Officials delayed plans to bring down the structures before Nestor approached. "
Eh?
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https://www.nfwf.org/semichigan/Pages...
" Approximately $1.2 million is awarded annually. Individual grants typically range from $50,000 to $300,000. "
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https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/20...
I love the detective work at the start, piecing together an 'orphan wave' that struck Japan centuries ago with various kinds of physical evidence and Native American tribal accounts. Continental drift is a young science and this article gives an idea how intensely it is being researched in California.
https://gizmodo.com/dormant-for-500-y...
Now the US is taking another bite of the underdeveloped league of nations. Maybe the whole world is like this, only the subject never came up. Everyone has big dams, can they all take a major usage of their massive spillways without failing.Here is a real piece of inconvenient news. Mojave River Dam, it's not just another dam. A really big dam, complete with a huge spillway might not be stable if the water actually goes over the spillway. One has to wonder if that information was in the original specs.
"Activities like preparing an emergency kit, registering mobile and other phones with the San Bernardino County Telephone Emergency Notification System for emergency alerts, creating an evacuation plan and establishing a family emergency communication plan can save lives."
https://www.spl.usace.army.mil/Media/...
Trump announced there will be cutbacks in fire fighting money for California because it happens every year since he became president. No matter what the stated reason, political or otherwise, the money for climate inflicted damage (call it weather related, like gang related) is not budgeted to be used on a constant basis, instead of the formerly random basis, and will run out.
It is only a matter of time before the flood assistance money also runs dry after consistent use. For the Mohave dam there is no fix, so there is no cost, we just hope the spillway never gets used. And if the spillway fails then 1.5 billion dollars of property is at risk.
The flood-protection rules that Trump wants to bypass are probably useless at this point. They are only words on paper and have nothing to do with the actions of the Natural World. There is no way to avoid living in a flood zone if any piece of land can receive rainfall at a faster rate than the water can be run off the land.
Buyer beware is probably transforming from build at your own risk to make sure it is built right in the first place. They have rebuilt one of the major hospitals located on the river in NYC that got flooded out by super storm Sandy. Any important building equipment is on the 23rd floor now. The emergency 25,000 gallon oil tank is in a waterproof room in the basement with a vertical tunnel leading to upper floors to get to it. Is 25,000 gallons a lot of oil?
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Another factor, I saw a TV programme recently about Brexit preparation. Brexit is a lot like a natural disaster in some people's minds - a challenge they have had to prepare for without knowing when it will strike. A giant warehouse in Wales was filled to the roof with a million pounds' worth of hospital supplies - bandages, crutches, drip equipment, swabs, gowns etc - everything but the medicines. The hospital authority said it would last North Wales six weeks.
Anything that changes on a large scale interacts with people directly because we are everywhere. Climate change is not only about the weather. Due to the interaction of so many things there is no guarantee events will come out good, bad, indifferent. Having 8 billion users has resulted in any event on the planet being run like a computer program. Once a program is running they don't appear to stop. Just when we thought we were getting a handle on what the total (natural and virtual built by us) world looks like and how it works it has now been announced that data is the new oil.
Ironically we are all up to our eyeballs in the new oil for better or worse. The dividing line between what the natural world is and what we have built is becoming one big blur. Are people already drowning in data.
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"...severe storms brought a month's rainfall in less than 24 hours to parts of central and northern England. "
https://www.independent.ie/world-news...
It is becoming more common to hear a months worth of rain in a day. The disruption is temporary but things soon dry out. What is going to happen when we start hearing 2 months worth of rain in a day, then 3 months, then 4 months, and so on. So far we are not changing anything, so how long will it take to get to the 2 month marker?
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https://www.independent.ie/videos/wor...
According to the BBC:
" Severe flood warnings and rail cancellations remain in areas of England flooded after a month's worth of rain fell in a single day.
Derbyshire and South Yorkshire have been worst hit by the floods, which claimed the life of one woman swept away in a river near Matlock. "
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-5...
" ...governments of all parties have been accused of not spending enough on protection.
You can build walls along river banks and many places have been guarded this way but such 'hard defences' are expensive and obtrusive.
An alternative is to employ what are known as soft defences. These include encouraging farmers to manage their land in ways that let fields hold back floodwater.
Driveways and car parks can be surfaced with materials that allow it to reach the soil underneath.
Another option is to make homes more resilient - fitting exterior doors with waterproof plastic panels, sealing the ground floor and raising fuse boxes. "
Those are things for new construction. There are very few options on the table for helping already built structures convert from old designs to alternative designs. There is a constant drive to seal the land, from the conversion of gravel driveways to asphalt to putting foundations in the ground. The places in the UK that got 2 months in 1 day this year didn't fare well at all. Crank that up to 3 or 4 months in a day and the walls will be breached. Don't build near potential waterways, you either do it or you don't. Once you do, you are throwing the dice. Accident waiting to happen scenario. If you already in that position you need to move. When you look at pictures around the world all the cities on the water have all the structures built right on the water, There is no visible land in the skylines.
Some cities in California have banned the use of natural gas in new construction by banning natural gas hookups to new construction. That indirectly adds kitchen gas stoves to the fate of wood burning stoves which planners would like to ban from households to reduce greenhouse emissions in the future. The natural gas companies are against these kinds of measures.
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https://www.ecowatch.com/venice-flood...
" The council chamber, which is located on Venice's Grand Canal in the Ferro Fini Palace, began to flood around 10 p.m. Tuesday, CNN reported. At the time, the councilors were discussing the 2020 budget for the northeastern Italian region of Veneto, of which Venice is the capital.
"Ironically, the chamber was flooded two minutes after the majority League, Brothers of Italy, and Forza Italia parties rejected our amendments to tackle climate change," Democratic Party councilor and environment committee deputy chairman Andrea Zanoni wrote in a Facebook post reported by CNN.
The League and Brothers of Italy are far-right parties, and Forza Italia is a center-right party, HuffPost explained. "
They are trying to build a floating water barrier to protect Venice from the rising waters, originally expected to be completed by 2016, now the date is 2022. It is called MOSE, named after Moses for parting the Red Sea. The cost has been 6 billion dollars so far and there are questions about if the design will successfully function as designed. Political disagreement has been slowing down the construction as well as corruption at the project. They have successful track records for past weather conditions for these types of solutions but there is no real time data for the new weather patterns. The cost of maintaining these barriers after they get battered and need repairs is not in the planned budgets. The only real solution is to move off the shore. One has to wonder how much it would cost to move Venice inland.
"...as epic floodwaters were rising in Venice, Italy, members of the Veneto regional council gathered in their chambers on Venice’s Grand Canal and, incredibly enough, voted to reject measures to battle climate change. Within two minutes, water started pouring in..."Changing wind patterns and stronger winds are driving fire and water damage around the world. The fire events are more noticeable and seemingly more damaging. The wind is driving the tides to higher than normal levels around Venice. While the wind driven tides are less noticeable and less spectacular, they represent an unrelenting force that is running twice a day, slowly eroding away the land.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics...
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Thanks for the info. But it's just a matter of time before any old gust of wind raises the tide just a little too much. The tides are listed as exceptional high tides. The news here has been using the same kind of words to describe our changing weather as if it is a temporary situation, which it used to be, implying that things will go back to the way they were. 6 inches of water in St Marks is probably no better than 3 feet of water. Along the east coast here now, there are areas that flood a little bit every time a storm goes by even if it is far out to sea. The list of areas that get minor flooding is increasing. The land height rises fast enough so the minor flood water stays near the shore, so if you don't live on the shore, you really don't care. I think Venice is all in the water so any above average tide can go through the whole area. Plus Venice is slowly sinking which doesn't help the situation. Venice's unique set up puts it in the same situation as other low land nations in the Pacific or the Indian Ocean, or even places where the buildings are sinking into the melting permafrost.
If I may add this to the topic: ARkStorm ((Has nothing to do with situation with Venice but since we are on the topic)) This will be happening soon enough and when it does Climate change will probably enhance the destructive nature of this event.
An ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000 Storm) is a hypothetical but scientifically realistic "megastorm" scenario developed and published by the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) of the United States Geological Survey, based on historical occurrences. It describes an extreme storm that could devastate much of California, causing up to $725 billion in losses (mostly caused by flooding), and affect a quarter of California's homes. The event would be similar to exceptionally intense California storms that occurred between December 1861 and January 1862, which dumped nearly 10 feet of rain in parts of California, over a period of 43 days.[1][2] The name "ARkStorm" means "Atmospheric River (AR) 1,000 (k)" as the storm was originally projected as a 1-in-1000-year event.[3] However, more recent geologic data suggests that the actual frequency of the event is likely in the 100- to 200-year range
The idea of atmospheric rivers are slowly being mentioned in the weather reports. They are huge and I guess keep the water in the sky. I would like to see some kind of reporting on how close they are to saturating areas of the atmosphere they run through and overflow the same way a flood stage river overflows its banks. The once every so many years event terminology has become outdated. I'm not sure how it will be reworked. I know we never want to see what the new 1,000 year event looks like.
The problem with storms is that the period of time we have witnessed has been populated by storms that start up, fly around, then disappear "quickly." There is no reason not to believe that the "off" switch can't take a very long time to switch the storm off. A coastal storm half on the water and half on the land that doesn't move and doesn't die out could pump a of of water onto the land in a week. This could easily bypass any storm surge barriers that are erected along the coast.
People are relocating away from areas that are prone to flooding. So far it is people who have limited access to funds. Those with the resources are erecting fortification style defenses to keep the weather out. The houses going up on stilts are a prime example. it cost over 100,000 to do it properly. The question is, while these structures are protected from flooding, will these elevated structures be able to withstand increasing wind speeds. The winds are not going to slow down. The recent series of storms in the northeast have been finished off by gusts of wind that have caused sporadic damage to structures for a day or two afterwards. The winds are being generated by the increasing pressure differences between the high and low pressure centers being generated by the decreasing distances between the high and low pressure centers as they go by.
Here are two locations that are short on funds so they will be relocating.
http://www.startribune.com/home-buyou...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/waterf...
Venice Flooding:From 1872 to 1950 there was one flooding event.
"Since 1951 until today, we have had 21 severe flooding events. Out of those 21, 13 have been since 2000 and out of those 13, eight have been since 2012," he said, adding that the week between Nov. 11 and 17 alone saw four "exceptional" high tides."
The population in 1966 was 120,000. Due to the impracticality of living in Venice, including high costs, overloaded with tourists, and increasing flooding of first floor levels, the population has dropped to 50,000. Venice is running an active program to get people to move there, including tourists, of which Venice sees 30 million a year.
Sometimes there are minor flooding events when big cruise ships go through the area or dock there, which has some residents wanting tourist ships banned from the area.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ve...
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From 1872 to 1950 there was one flooding event.
"Since 1951 until today, we have had 21 severe flooding events. Out of those 21, 13 have been since 2000 and out of those 13, eigh..."
Wow. We've had a lot of flooding events in the Midwest... but I guess I'll stop complaining. :-o
They were probably higher up (land sinkage) and fewer low areas were constructed at the waters edge. Some communities in parts of Florida have miniature salt water ponds for 2 or 3 months in the low lying roads before it dries out. The streets with bigger "ponds" can have signs that say "Don't Leave A Wake" because the saltwater can adversely impact the landscaping, and cause corrosion problems for houses and vehicles.
One curious feature about our storms lately is that they are now followed by a day of windy conditions. Fortunately for the ocean facing coast the after storm winds are blowing off shore. In bays and other areas where land is facing the wind blown water some flooding can occur depending on the tides.
Every day there can be a 5 foot difference between high and or low water points between the daily tides caused by a number of factors. Even though the local rising sea level is now pegged at 30 inches in the next 20 years, it won't really be noticed until there is a storm and that extra water piles up on top of itself and then the land gets flooded.
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https://earther.gizmodo.com/a-year-af...