World, Writing, Wealth discussion
Wealth & Economics
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When the change may be nigh
Nik wrote: "Once a giant, I think Kodak's bankruptcy resulting from sloppiness in embracing digital revolution, may be telling about fast-changing spirit of our times.http://mashable.com/2012/01/20/kodak-dig..."
Oil and gas are heavy investors in alternate energy albeit done quietly and you now see the mainstream vehicle manufacturers moving into electric cars after year of pushing petro/diesel
I think everybody should ask themselves if they are in an endangered industry or whether the job they do could be automated or done cheaper abroad. If so, re-train and take different skills to market.If you can predict or react quickly to an industry ending or starting, of course you can save or make money. look at Bitcoin (rising) or paper publishing and advertising (declining). The good thing about the latter is that these jobs transfer directly across to their electronic equivalents. The business model then just needs to solve the payment stream problem - micropayments and so on, instead of a traditional retail price.
If the suppliers to customers ratio is top heavy, people will expect the product for free and you can't pay staff. It's a race to the unpaid end of the market. Therefore, watch out for any industry being replaced by something members of the public are happy to provide for free. That suggests that specialist manufacturers are more likely to keep their niche, whereas bulk suppliers of something easy to reproduce are stuffed. Watch out also for raw materials becoming unavailable, e.g. helium is running out and the rare metals that go into mobile phones are exhaustible.
If you ever do hear of an industry-killing event, e.g. the invention of the teleport, don't hesitate.
The problem with industry-killing developments is they may be frauds. As for a teleport - stay well clear - it won't work - physics is against it.However there are other problems in foreseeing the future. I thought bitcoin, when it came out, would not work because everyone would be too scared it would be hacked. What I did not realises that it would be adopted by crime - the digital currency avoids the need for money laundering. The future is just so difficult to foresee, although maybe crime was foreseeable.
Crime is a given, but I'm sad to hear that teleportation may not become a reality. It's such a cool idea. Could all of the jobs regular people do be taken over by technology within a few years? And, if so, would it be fair to give everyone a certain amount of income to compensate? But then what will people do with their time when there's no job available for them to do? I'd say this is another argument for limiting population growth.
@ Scout - In one of my novels, a planet of advanced aliens had all the work done fro them by AI, so the reserve occupation was to go to committees and participate in democracy. With so many arguing, nothing ever got done, but they saw no reason to worry about that because just about everything was right.However, you can't get rid of all jobs. There is still hospitality and entertainment, and a number of service jobs. Also, there will remain some jobs that require serious training and education. The problem then is, there are two groups - those with jobs and the bulk without. In my view, that could be a serious social problem.
Which novel can I read? Will hospitality and entertainment and service jobs receive high pay then, since most in demand? Regarding your last statement, would the rich subsidize the rest of the people to keep them from revolting?
Scout wrote: "Which novel can I read? Will hospitality and entertainment and service jobs receive high pay then, since most in demand? Regarding your last statement, would the rich subsidize the rest of the peop..."The book is "Scaevola's Triumph", but it is the third of a trilogy. Many of my novels explore different forms of governance, but that is not the main purpose. In the novel, I dodged the issue of pay, although entertainers were noted as being the most privileged in terms of income. (But then they can be now too, if they are any good.) Yes, the rest were subsidised - everybody had a reasonably generous adequate base income, most of which was provided in kind, i.e. good accommodation, food, clothes, manufactured stuff, etc, mainly provided by machines.
Interesting ideas, Ian. How can I find your books?
@ Scout. They are ebooks, My Amazon author page ishttp://www.amazon.com/-/e/B004XXEUZQ
A full set of links, plus some information about me, can be found at
http://www.ianmiller.co.nz
J.C. Penny's stock just hit an all-time low. Sears has been on the death watch for a while now, and that's one that has me baffled. There is a company where the customers have been telling them what's wrong for years (stores old, dirty and out-dated), but with all the money they've borrowed and that they've taken in by selling off Kenmore and Craftsman brands, do they at least give their stores a token make-over? No! They continue with business as usual and expect the customers to come around and magically come back to them. Couple this with the fact that Sears basically built itself on the mail-order business and you have to wonder why they weren't the one brick-and-mortar retailer to make a seamless transition toward etailing. The shift to internet sales should have been a natural one for them! This is one company that deserves to die just for the arrogance and stupidity, but it's probably emblematic of why department stores in general have struggled with the digital age.
Philip wrote: "Nik wrote: "Once a giant, I think Kodak's bankruptcy resulting from sloppiness in embracing digital revolution, may be telling about fast-changing spirit of our times.http://mashable.com/2012/01/..."
Was going to say something similar until I saw your post. Thing about many major companies is that they're reluctant to invest in new and unproven technology...too much risk if their development fails. It's far safer to let smaller start-ups invest and take the risk, then turn around and buy them out once the technology is proven. Like you said, the oil companies will ride the wave of oil while it's lucrative, and diversify when that market begins the decline.
Just look at what's been happening in the beverage industry in the last ten to twenty years. Companies that used to focus on soda have diversified their portfolios to include water, juice, tea and other non carbonated beverages. And the benefit for them is that it seems they did so just ahead of the curve because soda consumption in the States has been on a decline in the last few years. Decline in sales from soda have been offset by increases in their other beverages so that the soda companies aren't suffering at all from the trend.
I am not convinced big companies reject change because new developments involve risk, at least in the sense J. J. put it. Once I was a Director of a Joint Venture with one of the biggest multis (because I represented the minor party that J. J. was indicating) and what I found was the big company has been there for a while, and the original drive from those who set it up had died, and was replaced by people who had never really developed anything themselves, and had made reputations within the company for strong management, financial control, and cost cutting. Their real problem was if they were shown an opportunity, the first tendency was to try to work out how to strangle it, how to minimize exposure, etc. The reason was probably that they were personally reluctant to take up something within the company that might disappoint, because that would limit their advancement, and when they got to the top, they had been so successful at not taking up new ventures they killed anything else. The "Dr No" syndrome struck - you could not be proven wrong if you killed an idea.
Retailers and chains, as J.J. mentions, may have problems and as Amazon buys physical stores to diversify, I guess some might look into ecommerce more attentively.It's just the change may come so rapidly, that it'll be hard to withstand. Who remember's Nokia's domination of cellphones market? Its position once seemed unshakable. I'd say 'drive the change' rather than wait.
How about Microsoft and Google(Alphabet)? Do they have enough up their sleeve for the future that will keep them on top?
As an aside, J.J. mentioned Sears, and it brought back working with my dad on cars and things around the house. He always used Craftsman tools. In the early 1900s, Sears sold entire kit homes through their mail order catalogs. The 12,000-piece kit came with a 75-page instruction book that promised the homeowner, “You can not make a mistake.” Typically, it took the average neophyte builder 3-6 months to complete assembly of his home. Sorry to see Sears go.
Scout wrote: "As an aside, J.J. mentioned Sears, and it brought back working with my dad on cars and things around the house. He always used Craftsman tools. In the early 1900s, Sears sold entire kit homes throu..."Our county historical society has put together a map of all the local houses that were originally built from Sears kits.
For some reason I can't see hairstylists/barbers being replaced by automation.......a high paying career for the future?
In spite of the old jokes about how the world needs ditch diggers, too......one of my most prosperous clients owns a trenching company. They do some private work, mostly with agricultural and real estate development applications, but the contracts with state and county governments are truly lucrative.
That is so cool, Holly. Have you seen any of the houses? I wonder what they were like. Must have been pretty sturdy to still be standing.And I see what you're saying about hair stylists, even manicurists/pedicurists. And certainly doctors would be difficult to replace with machines. And psychologists - imagine talking to a machine about human problems. I do think ditch diggers would be easier to automate, but any job that requires intimate human interaction will be safe from mechanization for a long time (I hope).
Funny the talk of the kit homes comes up. Was seeing a piece on the local news that there are supposed to be quite a few here in Raleigh...they would ship them on the trains and the people would just go and pick them up. It really is a cool idea that I think we've lost as people have moved toward contracting out a lot of the DIY stuff that was common place a hundred years...maybe even fifty years ago.There's an ad running on TV for one of those stupid "home warranty" services where one of the "characters" complains "Who's got time to fix a toilet?" I'm no home expert pro by any means, but really?
I find the Sears kit homes so interesting. Here's a page with pictures and prices. https://www.pinterest.com/AlanaghM/se...Plumbing, wiring, heating were extra. I was thinking some simple house, but these are two-story, good-looking houses. I'll try to post a pic.
J.J., I have the time, and I've attempted to fix some toilet problems, some with more success than others. I'm going to try to repair an old toilet in which the rubber stopper has ripped apart and become detached from the chain that pulls it up when flushing. Thank God for YouTube. Just hope I can find the parts. Can't imagine building a whole house from a kit.
So which industries will we bid goodbye and which will replace them? For example, I hear some malls don't feel that well, some retail stores. Offices - do you see them survive the turn of the century?
I suspect offices will go as transport becomes more difficult. All that stuff done on paper in offices can be done by electronics. One reservation, of course, is paper can't be hacked so easily. I also think shopping will change, with more home delivery. You will be allocated a time where you have to nominate all things you want delivered (not necessarily from the same shop) and a delivery van will deliver. Either that, or our cities have to change dramatically
Here in the states we are already seeing what Ian was saying about home delivery. Two major grocery store chains here in Florida will deliver groceries to your door. Also there is a car company here in the states (not sure if it is in every state or not) that will deliver a brand new car to your house as well. With the car company you pick out what you want online all the way to what features you want in the car and the company will deliver it to you. Almost everyone has some sort of internet access here in the states no matter if you are in the city or in a rural area to the point of being able to order anything you want with online shopping and delivered to you quick.
There are still malls here in the states but as far as statistics I am not sure how many that are still fully functional.
Actually not to far from where I am now there is a mall being leveled as it has been in that location for over 30 years, but it fell on hard times so it is now being destroyed.
There are still malls in our city but they are few and far between.
I think that businesses that cater to adults are going to have a hard time of it.Many people in the US have been infantilized to the point of being children playing adult. They don't drink coffee anymore. Now they drink Starbucks branded milkshakes. Nor do they go to bars. They go to places like Dave and Buster's, which is an arcade that serves beer. And I'm getting real tired of "men" who dine out in short pants and a t-shirt.
I'd ask, what are the jobs that are safe from becoming redundant because of technology?
J. wrote: "... "men" who dine out in short pants and a t-shirt...."Not the best outfit to carry a big gun :)
Scout wrote: "I'd ask, what are the jobs that are safe from becoming redundant because of technology?"Jobs per se may become redundant. Why bother, if robots and controllable animals/fish/birds can do all the work. Were we born to slave or enjoy or both? :)
Nik wrote: "J. wrote: "... "men" who dine out in short pants and a t-shirt...."Not the best outfit to carry a big gun :)"
And what do you take when you dine out ????
Ian wrote: "And what do you take when you dine out ????"Since unfortunately I don't have a gun, I need to bring a wallet :(
Tough luck Nik.Some of us bring a partner. In my case, the absence of said partner means I don't dine out so I am a little out of touch with these fine points.
Here in Florida the only time a man wears a jacket and tie to a restaurant is when it is a lunch break so the business people stop in to eat lunch or it is when they are dining out at an upscale restaurant. Florida being known for boating and golf it is not unusual to see the men in shorts and t-shirt/polo shirt at restaurants. It is the way of life down here. :)
Nik wrote: "J. wrote: "... "men" who dine out in short pants and a t-shirt...."Not the best outfit to carry a big gun :)"
Oversized t-shirts and elastic waist bands make it easier to conceal a gun. Disturbingly, some of these 300 pounders, who have to lift their guts to draw, could probably carry a Desert Eagle without printing.
Except for rare occasions, I do not wear a coat and tie to dinner. I do not wear a wife beater or shorts either. In the NYC area, there is plenty of dining adventures to meet every style of dress.
Being a town of 40k with a military base at the end of the road, we see a lot fatigues. People wanting to have a dress up for an anniversary or special occasion dinner consistently are asking on FB, where can we go? The answer is a different county. Like Florida, most people are in shorts or jeans and t-shirts. Like Ian, being single, I don't eat out. I do buy a lot of carry out.
Scout wrote: "I have the time, and I've attempted to fix some toilet problems, some with more success than others."I had both of mine replaced 3 years ago. The city was giving out refunds per old toilet traded in and proof of buying a new one and having it installed. Their goal was to encourage everyone to put in low water usage new ones. It's a relief to spend the last 3 years without ever having to adjust a float, stop the tank from running, plunge frequently, or buy draino type products. The new ones not only save water but have more power in the flush. I found someone to do it cheap enough and good sale prices on new toilets, so I broke even. They put the incentive program in place again this year.
Hi, Lizzie. I finally paid a plumber to install a new toilet. It's a low water usage one that, unfortunately, sometimes takes two flushes to work. I miss the old one with that powerful rushing water that took care of everything :-) I know, saving water is best, but I can reminisce. It's nice to know there are other women out there dealing with these things that males traditionally dealt with.
Scout wrote: "Hi, Lizzie. I finally paid a plumber to install a new toilet. It's a low water usage one that, unfortunately, sometimes takes two flushes to work. I miss the old one with that powerful rushing wate..."Like most things I buy, I spent time researching them and balancing price vs. function. It's amazing how much difference there is in the power of the flush with the same amount of water. Heights of toilets. Shapes -round or oval. Having to balance the space available between the toilet and the sink cabinet to be able to get the cabinet I wanted.
Truthfully, I resent having to deal with this stuff. But, it's cheaper to pay a mortgage than it is to rent. And our society has changed so much, along with our life spans, that single, retired women are now having to deal with all the stuff that when we were children men took care of.
I don't know why good handyman don't stick around as long as good mechanics do, but I need both.
I love having my own house. Nobody can take it away as long as I pay my taxes :-) I think the occupation of handyman is an up-and-coming one. People like us are an increasing percentage of the population, and a good handyman is necessary. I can do lots of things around the house, but plumbing and electrical, in addition to things that require strength I don't have, are skills I could use. I think of guys with those skills sitting around at home wishing they could earn some money, and I wish I knew how to find them.
I always get a plumber for important work. I have an older house with metal pipes and cutting and threading such pipes needs care. Most electrical work is illegal for DIY here, to ensure idiot work doesn't kill someone.
My ex is an electrician and HVAC person. So, although the ex moved out of state last summer, I expect they will be back this summer. All my electrical stuff was done for free. When they get back here, they will do my roof but I have to figure out how to get the materials down here from the big city that they want to use.On the other hand, my 1st ex was a licensed contractor and he won't do anything for me. He's the one who never paid his child support while the 2nd one supported our kids.
Like Scout mentioned, I know there are competent handyman out there but I don't know how to find them. I admit I don't have any house maintenance skills and with the nerve damage, I have no strength in my arms. However, I can cook and have a lot of legal knowledge and skills.
Don't get me started on the deadbeat dad thing :-) Too bad we can't go back to the old barter system: I'll do your legal work if you do my home maintenance. I'm not having any luck finding someone just to do yard work and odd jobs. I actually like doing the work, just need the extra hands and strength required. Used to be that teen-aged boys in the neighborhood were always looking to earn a buck, but they're too good for manual labor these days. They don't even mow their own lawns. Oh, well (sigh)
Scout. I ask the same question. Where have all the teenagers gone who were happy to make some cash money?i suggested when they closed my child support file because my ex wasn't working and had filed for disability, that they make him do work on my house. While they liked the idea, no way to make it happen.
Oh, well. . . I say that a lot these days.
Scout wrote: "Oh, well. . . I say that a lot these days."Glad to see you online, Scout! Didn't see any posts from you for a day or so, and was hoping all was good.
I think we all say "Oh well..." quite a bit right now.
Hi, Leonie. Spent the afternoon with my son and his wife and my four-month-old grandson. He loves looking at his little cloth books with me and turning the pages. Another reader in the family :-) I haven't seen anything about the fires in Australia lately. Hope things are better there.
One bright spark in all of this. No fires right now. Mind you, we seem to be reeling from one disaster to the next, but hey, that's life, really!Glad to hear you've been having some quality family time!
And glad the fires are out for now. All we can do is live a day at a time, prepare where we can, and hope for the best. Thanks for your good wishes!
An interesting graph, but beware percentages. It shows a 100% increase in property for sale. If, at the first point, the agent had 1 property and now had two, that would fit the graph! Obviously, then, no big deal. Unless you have some data on the reference point, it does not mean as much as you might think.
http://mashable.com/2012/01/20/kodak-...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kodak
The alteration can be instantaneous. For example, we still see a lot of oil and gas giants in the top tiers of Fortune 500: https://www.statista.com/statistics/2...
But maybe their days are numbered? What do you think?
Where else the change may happen?