Job Loss due to Automation and Robotics

[Avnish]

There is phobia among politicians and thinkers that automation in industry and services will result in job loss and all around unemployment. Is this fear real or unwarranted? Since the beginning of industrial revolution, there have been many phases of mechanization and automation. None of them resulted in increase in unemployment levels. First textile industry was mechanized in early 1800s. A number of new jobs were introduced. At the same time people had to shift occupation from home workers to factory workers. Automobiles revolutionized transport of persons and goods in early 1900s. Computers were introduced in offices and industry in 1960’s and 1970’s. A number of new types of jobs were on offer with appropriate skills with all these innovations.
So it seems that fear of job loss due to automation and robotics is imaginary.

[Nik]

Avnish wrote: "fear of job loss due to automation and robotics is imaginary..."

The fear is real, but is it based on solid footing? I'm not sure we can entirely rest on the past to predict the future. We saw what happened when everyone believed that the real estate will appreciate forever...
It so happened that the economies had been expanding in the past and new technologies brought shift in required jobs and occupations, so we blacksmiths, carpenters, agri-workers, shoemakers were gradually replaced by drivers, pilots, tv staff, engineers, hi-tech and so on.
With globalization we see not only automation, but also siphoning of jobs into cheaper and environmentally less particular locations.
Whether youtubers, indie authors, gamers, recyclers, coachers, programmers and so on offer enough supply of jobs looking forward, I'm not sure.
Probably those researching the tendencies and running simulations should have better prognosis, although all of them are subject to considerable deviations...

[Ian]

My guess is that the best of the new jobs created will require a higher level of education than in the past. I suppose there will always be room for people serving big Macs, but my guess is that the pay will continue to be pretty poor for them.
I think the fear is real for a fair per centre of the population.

[Avnish]

New jobs appear due to advancement in technology. SO there will be jobs of manufacture, program, test and use the automated systems and robots. Persons with these jobs will command higher income. Those who dare to learn new skills and shift occupations will get these highly remunerative jobs. But other occupations such as agriculture, animal husbandry, textile, watch making, shoe repair, hospitality will remain. With higher income of some people, they will also required to serve them in a little more sophisticated way with more innovations and value added products and services. Thus they will also command higher income.
Regarding bubbles like real estate, these are based on speculations. When general masses start believing in such bubbles and start taking loans for investing in shares and real estate, these sever business cycles appear and drag the economy in opposite direction for a fairly long time. Now how to make people not indulge in imaginary booms? One way is to make them rational human beings who believe in genuine work, earning and consumption.