What to do when antibiotics will stop working?

[Nik]

There are estimates that by 2050 antibiotic era will end and death as a result of infection will return to pre-penicillin level.
Why? Because of mutations and development of drug resistant bacteria and viruses. Here are some articles about the issue:
http://observer.com/2015/11/the-end-o...
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-30416844

Sure thing, quite a few private and public entities attempt to tackle the issue.

How real do you think is the danger or is it a scarecrow?

[Holly]

I haven't taken antibiotics in the last decade.

[J.J.]

I'm sure the drug companies will create a "treatment" that will make you feel slightly better, but require you take it for the rest of your life...

[Ian]

One of the problems with antibiotics is that the major drug companies are, by and large, not looking for new ones. The reason is, if they found one, and went through the hugely expensive trials process, they would not sell much, the reason being that if a really new antibiotic became available, the medical profession would want to keep it in reserve. Much better to use what is available, while it still has life.

If we get to the point where nothing works, I think surgery will basically be reduced severely, and will only be used for the most critical cases. Things like hip replacements will probably be things of the past. Not good.

[Graeme]

Faith wrote: "We have interfered in that process (we call it compassion) to ensure bad designs survive and pass on their genetics, i.e. we have put a stop to natural selection...."

This interference could also become more aggressive through active use of in situ genetic manipulation, nanotech, cybernetics, etc.

[Graeme]

J.J. wrote: "I'm sure the drug companies will create a "treatment" that will make you feel slightly better, but require you take it for the rest of your life..."

Hi J.J. Keep that up and you can reserve a cot next to mine at the re-education facility

[Ian]

J.J. wrote: "I'm sure the drug companies will create a "treatment" that will make you feel slightly better, but require you take it for the rest of your life..."

Sounds like a good plot start for an SF novel or movie :-)

[Philip]

The good news - drug companies are interested in keeping you alive - as long as you can pay
The bad news - they are not interested in cures or vaccines

There is no money in antibiotics
There is money in keeping diabetics alive or HIV patients or cancer treatment - not cures but maintaining alive.

I did the everyone dies scenario in my second book which was based on viral spread of a genetic virus. The risk from antibiotic failure or some other preventable disease is quite frighting - if unlikely.

More good news - governments (sorry if sounding socialist) may spend the money on the basic research if the voters make it a priority.

No help in the USA or some streams of the UK where political ideology prevents government intervention except to protect the people by spending money on the security apparatus. One terrorism death millions spent. Thousands of antibiotic deaths - barely a murmur.

[Jona]

Researchers are investigating fecal micro-biotic transplants to destroy antibiotic resistant bacteria. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/N...

[Melonie]

Faith wrote: "I'm in a bleak mood (reaches for pills."

Nicely summed up, Faith. Hand me one of those pills.

[Scout]

I don't trust big business. I think there are monetary incentives for drug companies to withhold cures for chronic diseases like diabetes and even for cancer. Cure cancer or diabetes, and all the current drugs become obsolete. The drug companies can't ethically charge enough for a cure to make up for all the treatments currently in use.

[Nik]

Can deadly epidemics like in medieval times of plague, cholera, typhus, etc return at some stage?

[Ian]

You can probably keep some of those plagues under control by killing rats, having good water, etc. However, there are a number of bacteria, the super bugs, that are becoming immune to antibiotics, and we are running out of new ones. I have seen statements from medical people who should know that it may be that life span will be seriously reduced as a consequence of bacteria - not the plague sorts, but the more common infections, and surgery could become a major risk in future

[Leonie]

Nik wrote: "Can deadly epidemics like in medieval times of plague, cholera, typhus, etc return at some stage?"

Measles...Samoa. Sadly, it's already happened.

Swine Flu is another example, along with Ebola. Viruses mutate regularly, unfortunately. Our best hope is vaccination, to keep things like cholera and typhoid in check, along with polio, which is only a plane ride away.

[April]

I foresee biologics and other regimens involving treatment at the genetic level as the next level of treatment in the pharmaceutical industry. They're already being used to treat certain types of cancer.

[Scout]

My dad recently found out he has macular dystrophy. One of the trials is using stem cells as a treatment.

[Lizzie]

I agree with Scout, Leonie and Nik. It can happen, likely will, drug companies are holding back to make more money, and the anti-vaccination people are going to infect us with more virulant strands of diseases that we had previously eradicated from 1st world countries. Measles were almost complete gone from USA; polio definitely was. It's all coming back.

[Ian]

In NZ measles were almost eradicated, but this encouraged anti-vaxxers, and now there is a minor epidemic when measles were brought in by a passenger from somewhere else. I know when I first travelled you had to have a certificate showing you had had a smallpox vaccination, and that managed o essentially eradicate smallpox. It can be done, but only if everyone cooperates for the greater good.

[Leonie]

The worst thing about measles, is the possibility of SSPE developing after apparent recovery from the initial measles infection. And getting measles at a younger age, appears to heighten the risk for it to develop.

Here's information if you're interested. https://www.ninds.nih.gov/Disorders/A...

From the Wikipedia article: The 2019 Samoa measles outbreak began in September 2019.[4] As of 26 December, there were 5,612 confirmed cases of measles and 81 deaths, out of a Samoan population of 200,874.[3][5] Over two percent of the population has been infected.[3]

[Ian]

SSPE seems awful. So is trying to pronounce the full name :-)

[Leonie]

Ian wrote: "SSPE seems awful. So is trying to pronounce the full name :-)"

Just as well there's a handy acronym, Ian!

[Ian]

Yep, those letters do make it easier Leonie

[Marie]

I have taken antibiotics in the past when I have been sick and they seem to help me.

Speaking of which, I am curious to know about the Z-Pak that they give out to patients for a like a quick cure. The doctors will give you a Z-Pak which consists of three pills that you take for three days. It does help you feel better as I took it once a long time ago and it worked, but I was wondering what all of you thought about it? I have heard bad things and good things about it, so I was curious to know if it is handed out in the countries where you live.

Here is a link for you all which is from a popular MD website here in the states:

https://www.webmd.com/drugs/2/drug-20...

[Ian]

Three days for an antibiotic does not seem reasonable to me; if you don't keep taking them until the infection is properly dealt with you merely develop antibiotic resistant strains that you then spread into the environment, and sooner or later they cease working.

It depends what the sickness is. If it is viral, antibiotics are useless. In NZ if antibiotics are prescribed, they are usually a longer course. Tolerably short courses are available as prophylactic, e.g. during and immediately after surgery.

[Lizzie]

I have rarely used antibiotics. Generally, only after surgeries to prevent the possibility of a bad infection (the last time it was in eye drops after eye surgery and it was for 1 week), years ago for wisdom teeth before surgery, and when I was younger, for UTIs. I try to avoid them because it is well-documented that our bodies build up resistance to antibiotics.

From the annals of my personal history - a high school science project that my lab partner and I came up with for our midterms was to expose one of the streptococcus bacteria to a commonly prescribed antibiotic. We then took what survived and exposed it to another round of antibiotics. By the 3rd round, the petri dish was all bacteria. The antibiotic no longer worked. Ten years later, I was reading a report where a formal study had been done, using the same strain with the same levels of the same antibiotics and had the exact same results. Of course, that study was many dollars spent, but they had the same conclusions and results that we had accomplished in our high school biology class for our midterm project. Overuse of antibiotics result in the development of resistant strains of a disease.

If you are wondering how 15 year olds were doing this type of thing - it was an advanced class in a new regional high school in a county in NJ that had a lot of "city" folks owning summer properties (high taxes) a lot of land owned by farmers and generations that had lived there for many, many decades (more money), providing for a good budget for equipment, supplies and excellent teachers. My lab partner and I were "newcomers" having lived there for only 5 years, were the working poor (wrong side of the tracks if there had been any), but the top 3% of a class of 197 students. So, we got to do stuff like that.

Combined with my love of science fiction, I am certain we will create our own superbug and pandemic from the overuse of antibiotics.

[Leonie]

We don't use a 'Z' pak here that I know of. Here, if required, you'd be prescribed a course of antibiotics. Assuming the infection isn't viral. Prophylactic antibiotics are only prescribed for very specific things. They're certainly not routine.