Pace of progress

[Nik]

Lizzie wrote: "But, even it we reach the point of the basics being there for all, there will still be those who have more and who believe they are entitled..."

If basics are met, it would defuse a lot of societal tension. Don't mind if some have more or much more.. Would prefer if having more were connected with positive effort

[Ian]

Regarding Lizzie's question about invention, the tech business involves three requirements - the ability to invent, the ability to monetize it, and the ability to manage the development of the business. It is very difficult to find all three in the same place. Lizzie mentioned Steve Jobs, but he invented nothing. Wozniack did the initial invention - later Jobs hired people to do the inventing. Jobs was exceptional at the second attribute, and he could see what was required before anyone else could see it. Those with the ability to invent invariably need a good monetizer. Big corporations have the management, they have the money, but they often lack the imagination.

[J.J.]

Nik wrote: "Lizzie wrote: "But, even it we reach the point of the basics being there for all, there will still be those who have more and who believe they are entitled..."

If basics are met, it would defuse a..."

I created a society like this in Prisoners of Utopia, where the government provided "basics" for all aspects of life. People could get free food, free clothing, even free housing. But "basic" was a pretty low standard. Food was edible, but so undesirable, only the poor who couldn't afford anything else would take it. Clothing was one style, one color, and those who couldn't afford better clothing were marked in society by what they wore. Even the housing was in old, decrepit buildings slated for eventual demolition, buildings that were away from the newer structures those of means lived with.

The problem with supplying basics for all in our society, is that the bar is continually rising for what constitutes "basic." Couple that with the call to add more and more "basics" as time goes on. In the 19th century, a lot of kids only went to school until they were old enough to work in the fields. In the 20th century, we provided education and mandated it through high school. In the last election here, there was a segment of the population unhappy with that, looking for free college.

In the other thread on health care, we are always hearing the occasional story out of one of these countries with government provided care of someone with a need that isn't covered by the State. Was it last year, there was a boy in the UK whose parents wanted him to come to the US for a treatment, and the government told them no. In these countries with free care, it's supposed to be clear what that care provides and doesn't provide, and stories like this indicate people want more and more. As we've seen in Greece in the last decade, it's near impossible to ween people off a welfare system when it becomes unsustainable

[[deleted user]]

Wasn't one of the fundamental problems in the Greek crisis the fact that tax evasion, nepotism and corruption were quasi national sports over there? Greeks openly bragged about how they cheated on their taxes, while showing off by throwing expensives parties they couldn't really afford. One factor in all this keeps getting forgotten: the sense of personal responsibility for your own acts. A culture where irresponsible spending is celebrated WILL one day or the other end in deep trouble.

[Nik]

J.J. wrote: "The problem with supplying basics for all in our society, is that the bar is continually rising for what constitutes "basic."..."

It's kinda natural, but should still remain basic for the relevant period. Building a draw well may be even more complicated these days than having a water supply installed -:)
Don't have supporting calculations, but intuitively this can work only if a sufficiently large segment of population won't make do with the basic and strive to more than that. Moreover, as far as I understand there are countries maybe not providing for basic income, but having similar similar conditions for unemployed, yet only a small percentage apply for it..

[Ian]

On the question of basics, J.J. notes that in the 19th century people had a short education then went to work in the fields while college was a luxury. That is true, but in those days the basic work for most was labouring or craft work, such as the blacksmith, and you trained for that as an apprentice. My father was too young to go to WW1, he rode a horse to school, and then on his father's farm would do farm work, ploughing etc with a horse (or horses). In those days, the education you needed for the rest of your life was learned on the job. Even when I was younger to earn money for university I had a summer job in a meat works because that was where big money was (for what I could do).

Now technology has changed everything. Labouring is left for those who really can't do much else. If you want anything above really bottom trawling, you need education. If the country wants to prosper, it needs as many reasonably well educated as it can get. Education is now basic to a country's prosperity. It makes sense to make that available to as many as possible.

Obviously, that means more taxes. Countries like Greece who make tax evasion a sport unfortunately have to take what is coming to them. However, tax avoidance that might as well be evasion, such as taking all your profits in the Caymans and all your costs in the highest taxed countries, is rife in a number of other countries, and in my view is similar to the Greeks, but not quite so open and clumsy.

[Matthew]

Ian wrote: "Singularity? Everything ends up at a point? I hope not. That would be too depressing."

No, nothing ends. The idea is that you can't see beyond this point. It's much like a quantum singularity (i.e. what resides at the center of a black hole), where all the laws of physics break down and you can't discern anything. In this same way, the future will be totally unpredictable past this point in our history.

[J.J.]

Nik wrote: "J.J. wrote: "The problem with supplying basics for all in our society, is that the bar is continually rising for what constitutes "basic."..."

It's kinda natural, but should still remain basic for..."

In the minimum wage debate back in 2016, it was argued that there was an unspoken justification for paying low wages because all the employees were then collecting social benefits to make up for it. Democrats were arguing that increasing the minimum wage would force companies to pay what people were worth, and get all of these working adults of food stamps, etc. In the last couple years, I've been seeing that it's not just companies, but cities and even states doing the same thing...Firefighters so underpaid, they have to fall back on public assistance, even teachers in some areas.

Ian takes another portion of my argument, and he triggers a good point that maybe government investment in education is more worthwhile than continued social support...not to say those programs should be instantly cut in lieu of Education assistance, but I'm always of the opinion that we should look at ways to ween people off these programs who really don't need to be on them...cutting the cord and forcing them off cold turkey isn't going to solve the fundamental problems, but, as Ian suggests, moving people onto a track for today's jobs gives them the opportunity to eventually support themselves.

[Scout]

I'm willing to pay more taxes to improve society in my country. But only if there's oversight of the programs - and by that I mean making sure that the money goes where it's intended and that it's not wasted or susceptible to fraud. I think many people would be willing to pay more taxes to improve our country, but only under these conditions. Welfare and Disability is rife with fraud and waste, and we're tired of that.

[J.J.]

Scout wrote: "I'm willing to pay more taxes to improve society in my country. But only if there's oversight of the programs - and by that I mean making sure that the money goes where it's intended and that it's ..."

A few years ago, the Republicans here in NC passed a law mandating smaller class sizes in schools. Now that we're approaching the deadline to implement it, schools are crying they don't have the money to make the changes, claiming the Legislature wants the change without giving them money to make it happen. A couple months ago, I caught a local program on PBS interviewing one of the Republicans and he tells the interviewer they did in fact allocate funding when they passed the bill, that the real problem was that the individual school districts redirected the funds into other parts of their budget.

The issue of education funding is exploding right now in NC, and watching it, I've come to the conclusion that the Legislature allocates the funding in smaller blocks, specifying what each block is to be used on - instead of giving the schools one, giant block grant and letting them decide where to apply it...but the school districts ignore the Legislature and spend where they need to anyway. It seems we definitely need to do a better job funding education in this state, but from what I gather, the Republicans are trying to increase it slowly so as not to break the budget while getting accountability, while the Democrats, especially in the Governor's budget earlier this year, just want to take all the money coming into the coffers and spend it willy-nilly without any concern to whether or not it gets spent where it needs to be spent. It's almost like a lose-lose.

[Nik]

It's none of my business really, but I hear in the US you spend tremendous amounts of money (trillions of dollars) on both healthcare and public education system and the result is very often criticized by the US citizens themselves. Not even sure the funding is the problem, but rather other aspects. You can probably expect a better return on your tax money.
And btw, who can vouch that defense budget is managed effectively? I kinda believe Leonardo DiCaprio in the Aviator movie in his Senate appearance or Elon Musk suing for the right to compete and become Air Force supplier -:)
I hear that public education in the UK is also substantially inferior to the private one. A friend of mine from London tells me that depending on the income of course, but most people strive to send kids to private schools and that even the unis view applicants differently whether they graduated from a public or a private school.

And again BTW, so that it won't sound that it's all wonderful everywhere - a single payer system in many countries has its own flaws and not everything is rosy there. Sometimes critical medications are not covered or the queue is so long - many revert to private insurance to get speedier appointments..
And a state procurement everywhere offers a lot of potential for shady-dealings and outright corruption...

[[deleted user]]

Unfortunately, Nik, there is no such thing as a perfect health care system right now around the World. However, what I find most scandalous in the present American health care system is that someone could get bankrupt, lose his house and even leave heavy debts to his family, and this just in order to pay astronomical hospital bills if he/she has the bad luck of being seriously injured in an accident or contract a mortal disease. One should not become broke just because of a health problem.

[Ian]

Nik, private education is likely to be better than public because private costs, and parents who sent their children there do so because they want the best for their kids, and have almost certainly put in a lot of effort getting the children interested (like eroding stories to them at an early age, and so on) so by and large, with good funding from rich parents and kids that are more or less interested, the teachers can teach. Public schools have to take all the kids, many of whom have no support for learning at home and aren't interested.

In NZ it is true I have private insurance to jump the queue for elective surgery, and the choice of surgeon, but apart from that, public health care is available to all. I am with Michel that your life should not be ruined by an unfortunate piece of genetic luck, or being in an accident that was not your fault

[J.J.]

Nik wrote: "And btw, who can vouch that defense budget is managed effectively?..."

It's not.

Towards the end of Obama's presidency, the Washington Post reported on a report the Pentagon funded and then tried to bury finding they were wasting $125 billion dollars over 5 years...And this is while they were constantly whining about the Sequester cuts. They have about 1 desk job for every active duty service member, the F-35 boondoggle has been a tremendous waste fo money, and all this equipment they're just giving away to law enforcement agencies? Congress dragged their officials over the coals a number of years back because some of this equipment was given away brand new so that they could go out and buy the same equipment all over again! I'm for a strong military, but the Pentagon needs someone to go in and take a serious look at their spending!

[Matthew]

The Pentagon has to be the worst pork-barell in the history of civilization. But of course, they are insulated from their monetary mismanagement and inefficiency because of the urgent need for "national defense". Much the same justification has been made for the creation of PRISM and the augmentation of US Cyber Command's powers. But when people discovered their personal information was being perused, many had a problem with it.

[Graeme]

Apparently we have progressed all the way to ignorance.

REF: Youtube: "Can you name a country?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRh1z...

[[deleted user]]

Graeme wrote: "Apparently we have progressed all the way to ignorance.

REF: Youtube: "Can you name a country?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRh1z..."

Ignorance is the proper word. Unbelievable! What are they teaching in American schools?

[Ian]

Graeme wrote: "Apparently we have progressed all the way to ignorance.

REF: Youtube: "Can you name a country?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRh1z..."

That was appalling, up until the last one. I mean, once they got Africa was it that big of a challenge to go to the bottom for South Africa?

[Graeme]

"What direction is south?"

"Ahhhh..... Ummm..."

[[deleted user]]

Graeme wrote: "Apparently we have progressed all the way to ignorance.

REF: Youtube: "Can you name a country?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRh1z..."

Another fine example of 'American Exceptionalism'.

[Nik]

Funny stuff.
Some ppl aren't tremendous in geography, however it hardly characterizes American exceptionalism. Maybe Edison, Bell, Einstein or Carl Sagan do. I'm equally sure geographically illiterate ppl could be caught everywhere.

[Scout]

Nik, you brought up an important issue when it comes to government spending in the U.S. There's no oversight for most of it. People are fraudulently receiving disability benefits and welfare benefits. As a solution, I propose a bounty for reporting offenders, similar to the 15% bounty the IRS gives to people who report tax offenders.

[[deleted user]]

Scout wrote: "Nik, you brought up an important issue when it comes to government spending in the U.S. There's no oversight for most of it. People are fraudulently receiving disability benefits and welfare benefi..."

Scout, the problem with that is that many people will use that 'cheat reporting' to accuse neighbors or other people they dislike, with their choice of accused often tainted by racism or homophobia. We already see that a lot around the USA, with police called on black people for the most stupid, ignorant reasons you can think of. In the old USSR and other communist regimes, including today's Cuba, or in authoritarian countries like Myanmar or Syria, one false accusation (often made anonymously and without any proof) would be enough to land you in jail, where you could be tortured into confessing your 'crimes'. Do you really want to start that kind of witch hunt in the USA?

[Ian]

Michel, just because Scout suggests others making accusations, that does not mean false accusations lead to unfortunate circumstances, let alone torture, for the accusee. There is no reason proper investigation cannot be carried out, and in this case, because the alleged fraud is against the government there should be a good paper trail, while other income can be followed by the IRS, including deductions claimed from whoever paid. It is true some illegal payments, like running drugs, might be difficult, but is a drug runner going to do something that could drag such unwelcome attention to him/her?

[[deleted user]]

Ian, you are selectively reading only the parts that fit your opinion. My main fear, as I said in my post, was that denunciations could be made on the basis of racism or personal animosity, or homophobia. Such false and spurious accusations based on racism are already common in the USA. My mentions of cases in communist and authoritarian countries were examples of what such systems of 'reporting' could lead to in the extreme. Please read my posts in context.

[Ian]

Michel, no, I am selectively taking the parts that referred to Scout. I am assuming that Scout is not endorsing what happened under Stalin, or the harassment based on race. Scout merely said that she thought cheats of the welfare system should be turned in. I merely tried to point out that if that were done, spurious accusations would soon be identified, and in principle the accuser be appropriately reprimanded. It is not a reason not to stop the defrauding of the state because there is other bad behaviour that I am sure Scout does not endorse, and neither do I. I would hope my context was also acknowledged.

Just to clear the air, I agree there are bad examples in the US of harassment based on race. Police shootings come to mind. However, that does not mean Scout hasn't got a valid point.

[Nik]

Cheating of welfare certainly happens and an oversight would probably reduce that. However, on a grander scale, my impression that cheats in the top tier (tax evasion/avoidance, state procurement, bribes, cronyism, unfair advantage and so on) result in a considerably more public overspending... And petty thieves are caught much more often than those with billion dollar worth loots...

[Ian]

Indeed, Nik. The big corporations are adept at it, and all that money sitting in the Caymans, etc has nothing to do with the economic value of the Caymans, other than their willingness to aid tax avoidance. There is no doubt white collar crime is rampant, and needs catching. The smaller stuff happens to be easier to catch, but the fact the fat cats are getting away with a lot is no reason not to have oversight on the benefits. It is a very good reason to devote more attention to the fat cats. I can't help thinking the rich tend to get away with more because of their political donations, but I confess I have no evidence to back that up.

[Scout]

Of course the rich get away with a multitude of tax sins. I'd leave that to the IRS, although they don't seem to do much about it.

I was talking about giving a bounty for reporting people who are fraudulently collecting disability or welfare payments. I think this represents millions of dollars stolen from taxpayers. If you're worried about harassment based on race or whatever, then make a provision that if someone mistakenly reports someone else, they have to pay the amount of the bounty to the reporting agency. That should remedy fraudulent reporting. Something has to be done, and there's little oversight by the government. Individuals, however, know when people are cheating and, if there's an incentive, they'll do the job the government isn't doing.

[Nik]

That might result in an atmosphere of snitching... In former USSR anonymous complaints to different authorities resulted in tragic results to often innocent families..
But that again - depends on a mentality.
In the same ex-USSR nobody would report a car crossing a junction on the red light, as the general atmosphere is anti-establishment, less law-abiding and clearly anti-snitching, while I hear in Germany - quite a few would.
As an alternative solution - maybe detectives working for welfare? If the cheating is widespread, I'm sure the savings they achieve would well exceed the costs of their retaining..

[Scout]

As I said, if the report is proved false, the person who reports has to pay a fine. All reporters must identify themselves. That should prevent Nazi-type agendas.

[Nik]

Has corona slowed down or intensified the pace? Will AI get into research and have a decisive impact on tech advances? What do you think?

[Ian]

We had a chance to stamp out SARS-CoV-2 and we flubbed it, as various politicians decided strong action would either mess up their electoral chances, or they just couldn't bring themselves to do it. Now, when you look at Brazil and probably India we see it is getting out of control and since it is overwhelming the health sector, we shall see its true fatality rate, and unfortunately what it is capable of mutating into.

As for AI getting into research it depends on what you mean by AI. At a modest level, it is already there. You can buy some machines, like NMR spectrometers that can take a stack of samples and analyse them without any further assistance. Whether that is AI or merely a well-programmed machine is another matter.