Are rejections 'telling'?

[Nik]

Speaking about book doctors on the other threads, we haven't mentioned literary agents in any context. However, precisely these dudes are supposed to tell from a mile away whether this or that book is gonna sell. Sometimes they need to read a couple of pages to arrive to the conclusion, maybe similar to readers who use 'look inside' feature to see whether it's something they wanna read.
Of course, there are all these stories that this and that bestseller was rejected so many times, including Rowling and other super sellers, yet if you are a fiction author your route to trad publishing usually lies through literary agent.
My own impression was that their prime and sometimes only concern is whether they feel the book would sell at least thousand + copies. Here formulaic could be even advantageous, if the genre is agent's area of specialization, because he/she knows that a well written small town murder mystery Agatha Christie-esque should sell this and that copies at the minimum, while something a little unorthodox from a debut author is more of terra incognita and thus chancy..
Anyhow, do you think rejections are 'telling' is a sense of a potential commercial success (or rather lack thereof)? Should an author that decided to self-publish apply to lit agents anyway just to check their reaction? -:)

[Roughseasinthemed]

If you look at some of the draft query letters that come up for comment, you can see why the agents would reject a book without even reading a synopsis or a chapter or so.

So if the letter fails, why read further?

[Michael]

Its not even might the book sell, its whether it fits into their release plans.

I was dealing with one lit agent for a client of mine a few years ago for a celeb book. I had to go back and forth with the lit agent on my client's book deal.

And I decided to work up the courage to pitch "Resurrection of the Scrolls" to him. The advice he gave was blunt, honest and sincere.

He thought it was a great idea for a book and it could sell, but he doubted an agent would rep me at this point because how much it sounded like "DaVinci Code." I was a few years too late and a few years too early. Books are cyclical. Genres get hot and cold. He said if I had tried to sell it at the height of the DaVinci Code craze I could have found an agent easily. Everyone was snapping up those type of MS. But now, no one wanted them. He said the same for vampire/werewolf stories. They were really hot and now they were going cold.

He told me to sit on my MS for a few years and it might get hot again. Which I planned on doing - until I was diagnosed with Stage 4 cancer, so I didnt really want to wait any longer, just in case. So I self-published.

I guess the advice is to write whats hot or at least try to guess whats going to be hot when you finish your MS.

[Ian]

The agent problem has no real solutions that I know of. A good agent will get something like 30,000 queries a year, and is unlikely to pick more than one to take a chance on. A beginning agent will take more and get less, but they will find it harder to place the script. In my particular case, my location was hopelessly against me. The agent, especially the younger agent, wants the author to do significant marketing, and as Michael indicated, they want the script to be in some genre that is hot so that if the author does something publicly, people will turn up out of curiosity.

Another problem is, the market has changed. When Stephen King got started, publishers were more prepared to take a chance because there were more outlets that might take them. Now, things are tighter, and the main stream makes most of their profit from the established - i.e. the Stephen Kings.

As an aside, good luck with the cancer, Michael. Depending on what it is, there are still chances.

[Michael]

Ian wrote: "As an aside, good luck with the cancer, Michael. Depending on what it is, there are still chances. "

Thank you very much. I dont concern myself with it much. I have some really great doctors at UCLA.

They way I look at it, the day before my diagnosis I was dying, the day of my diagnosis I was dying, and the day after my diagnosis I was dying. Nothing really changed. Its not a matter of if, its just a matter of when, and really that's what it is for all of us. I just have the gift of knowing that its coming sooner than later.

[Quantum]

Michael wrote: "I guess the advice is to write whats hot or at least try to guess whats going to be hot when you finish your MS. "

then an agent that is up-to-date with the latest trends would satisfy the first three "book doctor" criteria:

(1) Does the book's style match enough with the expectations of enough readers in that targeted niche?
(2) Does the book's originality in ideas or style match the current or projected trends (admittedly, difficult) in the niche?
(3) Does the book's originality in ideas or style match current trends outside of the niche; for example, current events, and endorsement by a US president, publishing trends like the introduction of the kindle.

but it does seem difficult to get their time. that's why we have beta readers and whole scores of "editors" popping up to service the self-publishing market, right?

Nik wrote: "Anyhow, do you think rejections are 'telling' is a sense of a potential commercial success (or rather lack thereof)? Should an author that decided to self-publish apply to lit agents anyway just to check their reaction? -:)"

why not, it's a free market, right?

[Bernard]

Alex G wrote: "Michael wrote: "I guess the advice is to write whats hot or at least try to guess whats going to be hot when you finish your MS. "

then an agent that is up-to-date with the latest trends would sat..."

Michael wrote: "Ian wrote: "As an aside, good luck with the cancer, Michael. Depending on what it is, there are still chances. "

Thank you very much. I dont concern my whoself with it much. I have some really great d..."

I think you gave a realistic opinion of basic questions an agent will ask himself. The first words of a query letter must make him forget any market bias he may have. Even then, a publisher who accepted you will demand a sometimes frustrating fine tuning.

The indie process will give you a total control at a more than low cost. The problem is that the traditional market quality control given by the agents/publishers disappeared allowing for tons of garbage to become shoveled. The free tools now available make it possible for scribblers to submit what I consider as virtual toilet paper.

In rare occasions, a rejection will turn out as a regretful error committed by an agent.

I decided to bypass the existing paradigm by focusing on beta readers as well as on expert opinions in my book's genre which will prevent me from begging for positive reviews at a loss price. It all depends on what one wants to sell, wallpaper or something serious that can be considered, given time, as part of contemporary literature.

[Nik]

How telling are rejections, what do you think?

[Ian]

Given the statistics I quoted above, I don't think they tell anything. The probability of acceptance is really low, no matter what. It is the acceptance letter that really tells!