Brexit - ciao Britain? She doesn't go anywhere

[Ian]

My guess is there are too many "sticking points" and there will be no deal. There is a good chance this will hurt the EU more than the UK.

[Nik]

Papaphilly wrote: "They are Americans...."

Yes, Papa, they are Americans, and I agree assimilation works, to a degree at least. However, with all the melting pot from what I hear in the group and elsewhere - your are hardly a homogenous society and some of the American values - should be divided by two depending on the affiliation. Wouldn't know first hand though.
We here have an internal tension btw secular and religious worldview and the latter use very well their proportionate power to run political candidates and promote the religious bend. If they had a majority, I suspect I could be devoid of bacon :)

[Nik]

Philip wrote: "On Brexit trade talks - PM is off to Brussels today to try and move things along or call a halt or reach a compromise or give in to EU - pick your politics.

Sticking points remain:
- Access to UK ..."

As a distant uninvolved observer, for me none of the points look unsolvable and it's probably ambitions and politicking that drag out the negotiations.. No deal is lose-lose, while a deal is a win-win, everybody understands that.

[Ian]

Niki, you would be surprised how often egos etc lead to lose lose predominating.

Meanwhile, I predict a new industry for you: bacon smuggling :-)

[Nik]

Ian wrote: "Niki, you would be surprised how often egos etc lead to lose lose predominating.

Meanwhile, I predict a new industry for you: bacon smuggling :-)"

Yes, egos or hollow hard-bargaining.
Nice biz idea. Hope unneeded :)

[Papaphilly]

Nik wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "They are Americans...."

Yes, Papa, they are Americans, and I agree assimilation works, to a degree at least. However, with all the melting pot from what I hear in the group and ..."

I certainly understand your point. I am trying to point out this is going to be multi-generational, but they assimilate. Even the United States has its issues with immigrants. But, they assimilate. The religious thing will fade with time.

[Papaphilly]

Ian wrote: "My guess is there are too many "sticking points" and there will be no deal. There is a good chance this will hurt the EU more than the UK."

I tend to agree with you. The E.U. cannot let this go and the U.K. cannot let this go either. I suspect there will be a last minute deal or they are crashing out. I too suspect that the E.U. takes it on the chin harder than the U.K. Either way, the U.K. is going.

[Philip]

Papaphilly wrote: "Ian wrote: "My guess is there are too many "sticking points" and there will be no deal. There is a good chance this will hurt the EU more than the UK."

I tend to agree with you. The E.U. cannot le..."

Technically the UK has already gone last January. We are in what was called the transition phase which finishes on 31st Dec. The trade and other elements deal is supposed to replace these arrangements which are the same as when we were still in. If the deal is not done then trade between UK and EU will be on WTO terms (Like most of the rest of the world) and how it was in 1972 when UK joined the then EEC.

One of the sticking points is that the EU does not like the fact that the UK will make its own trade deals. The counter to that is that the critics think the EU's trade deals are more powerful. They always forget that UK is 6th largest world economy on its own. EU with UK is probably 2nd largest economy after USA. Not that GDP correlates to wealth of inhabitants.

This has always been my fallback as to why I think a deal will be done 20% of German car exports are to UK. Mrs. Merkel just needs to bang some heads.

[Ian]

And she should remember that Japan and Korea can easily supply that market, and from what we see here, cheaper.

[Philip]

More post trade news

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-5...

[Philip]

And the deal is done (no surprise but the bureaucrats have got to earn their money)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...

[Nik]

What a surprise, the deal of the century is finalized :)
Anyway, congrats! And they lived happily ever after ....

[Ian]

And they certainly did go down to the wire, but well done. At least they will live happier ever after.

[[deleted user]]

Great news from Sunderland:

https://news.sky.com/story/nissan-bos...

Despite 4 years of Remoaner scare stories, Nissan says Brexit deal is 'positive' - and gives carmaker a 'competitive advantage'.

1 smaller bit of negative news from the factory - a production line is closing, but Nissan has confirmed this is down to the virus (or at least the response to it).

[Nik]

Would be kinda absurd, if you rejoin in a few years :)

[[deleted user]]

Nik wrote: "Would be kinda absurd, if you rejoin in a few years :)"

Won't happen, Nik. The many benefits of Brexit are crystal clear. Unfortunately, we won't get to see all of them in the foreseeable future because of you know what.

[Philip]

EU Vaccine woes

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-euro...

[Papaphilly]

There are vaccine woes all over the place. It will catch up to demand hopefully sooner than later.

[Ian]

Vaccines do take time to manufacture, and you can't produce billions of doses in very little time

[Anne]

Well my doctor invited me to have round 1 of the Pfziser vaccine in a local clinic. The following day I was vaccinated efficiently, punctually and have no complaints. I think England is doing its best. not everything is automatic, it takes time to take care of the whole population.

[Philip]

Anne wrote: "Well my doctor invited me to have round 1 of the Pfziser vaccine in a local clinic. The following day I was vaccinated efficiently, punctually and have no complaints. I think England is doing its b..."

6.3 million done so far - a staggering number

[Ian]

It takes time to do a single jab, if you want to do it with some sort of humanity towards the patient. Further, you need to separate the people because immunity is not instant and you do not want to create superspreader conditions. Further, you need to keep the jabbees separated but visible for a while later just in case there is an anaphylactic shock. So the rate is limited by suitable space and the number of people qualified to inject, and the time it takes them to do it. Simple kinetics :-) I think 6.3 M is a truly notable achievement.

[Philip]

After all the deals and the threats and the complaints about UK negotiating position the first side to go back on the Brexit Deal - 29 days old - is the EU.

Article 16 no vaccines.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-norther...

[Ian]

Philip wrote: "After all the deals and the threats and the complaints about UK negotiating position the first side to go back on the Brexit Deal - 29 days old - is the EU.

Article 16 no vaccines.

https://www.bb..."

If I understand this properly, Astra Zeneca has a factory in Europe that is not performing properly. Also, the EU has not approved the Astra Zeneca vaccine for use within the EU. If they can't get their paperwork in order in that time, why do they expect the company to get a factory running? Also, why should Astra Zeneca up production until the product is able to be used there?

[Philip]

EU has backed down a bit. The Astra Zeneca dispute is slightly different . AZ stated 'reasonable best efforts' to supply. The EU, having ordered 3 months after UK, insisted immediate delivery to a timetable agreed in the contract. The EU only approved AZ vaccine on Friday on the same day it tried to suspend article 16 or invoke it to stop EU factories exporting not just to UK but worldwide.

NI (as part of UK) has vaccinated 5 times number in Republic of Ireland (a lot of these are AZ) which is also the ratio per head across Europe i.e. UK has vaccinated 5x number of EU by approving first and ordering first.

EU governments under major political pressure because of these bureaucratic delays due to EU commission process. EU to deflect has very public row with major manufacturer (Which it would lose in any court (Reasonable is always a good get out clause) and then invokes an article 29 days after agreeing it having spent 3 years arguing with UK about why this must be there to protect NI

This will have ramifications way beyond the vaccine even if they have stepped back. The Republic's Government was not even told about the invocation...

One good thing it united the 5 main parties in NI (including Sinn Féin) into a common anti-EU statements - something that is for the good of NI governance.

I think this demonstrates the pressure the EU Commission is under and the failure of the vaccine programmes across EU. Their newspapers and media are full of questions as to how UK is doing better on vaccine programme despite death rates.

[Papaphilly]

Philip wrote: "After all the deals and the threats and the complaints about UK negotiating position the first side to go back on the Brexit Deal - 29 days old - is the EU.

Article 16 no vaccines.

https://www.bb..."

What did you expect for the EU. They showed early on they had no qualms of making life hard. It is to keep the others in line.

[Papaphilly]

Philip wrote: "I think this demonstrates the pressure the EU Commission is under and the failure of the vaccine programmes across EU. Their newspapers and media are full of questions as to how UK is doing better on vaccine programme despite death rates. ..."

I think it shows every government is under tremendous amounts of pressure over COVID.

[[deleted user]]

After 4 years of being told by British Europhiles how Britain is bad and the EU is good, it was rather enjoyable watching their discomfort at the end of last week. How ironic that it was the Irish border question that caused this.

[Ian]

And now you are being told by the EU that Britain is bad and the EU is behaving badly in the process :-(

[Philip]

Not surprisingly trade (not COVID vaccines) is problematic in some areas where EU rules are blocking exports that were perfectly OK a month ago. More petty regulations to try and pressure UK. EU is behaving like the protectionist cartel it always has been whilst claiming to be a bastion of free trade. Fisherman suddenly not allowed to export catches to France etc. No problem until the bureaucrats don't get their dishes in their restaurants but then again aren't they all supposed to be closed?

Lots of issues with NI in the UK not allowed to import goods from rest of UK because they might resell it to Ireland. Now causing some shortages in NI. EU ignored fact that 80-90% of NI good came from UK not Ireland but the intra Ireland traffic had to be protected.

[Papaphilly]

It will take time to iron out, but they will. The EU will be hit harder than the UK.

[Ian]

It is no news here that the EU is protectionist. It always has been.

[Philip]

I think I posted before about how the UK when joining the EEC was forced to give up trade to the commonwealth in favour of European partners. e.g. no bananas from Caribbean in favour of Canary Islands

Treatment of Aus, NZ and Canada was appalling. India was not such a big deal then but of course with a billion people is now.

Hopefully some sanity has returned and EU/UK are discussing the issues

I hope everyone is sensible but EU has shown little sign in last two weeks.

[[deleted user]]

Philip wrote: "No problem until the bureaucrats don't get their dishes in their restaurants."

Ha ha - love it!

Also, I think Papaphilly will be proved correct. Apparently, we're joining a pan-Pacific trading club too:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...

[Papaphilly]

Beau wrote: "Philip wrote: "No problem until the bureaucrats don't get their dishes in their restaurants."

Ha ha - love it!

Also, I think Papaphilly will be proved correct. Apparently, we're joining a pan-Pa..."

The EU had better be careful.....

[[deleted user]]

Over 17m of us realised it 4.5 years ago, but the more time passes, the more ridiculous 'Project Fear' appears. I still haven't heard any apologies from the remoaner element of the remain camp for trying to frighten little children, elderly ladies and (of course) the banking community:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-5...

[Philip]

Beau wrote: "Over 17m of us realised it 4.5 years ago, but the more time passes, the more ridiculous 'Project Fear' appears. I still haven't heard any apologies from the remoaner element of the remain camp for ..."

And you won't

Every little incident is an attempt at "I told you so" even if it has nothing to do with Brexit, e.g. EU COVID blocks dressed up as Brexit issues

See Labour leader had to apologise for "misleading Parliament" on EU Medicines agency something he spent months advocating. The same agency that ordered 3 months after UK and did not approve until last week 2 months after we started giving vaccines.

Then there is the PPE row at the start whilst UK was ordering and receiving EU had not ordered whilst EU agree procurement approach.

But then again the official COVID death stats show EU did fantastic job compared to UK whilst not publishing excess death stats - helps of course not to test or not to record. They learned that from China...

[Papaphilly]

Careful Phillip, you are starting to sound like you are sliding to the right....8^)

[Philip]

Papaphilly wrote: "Careful Phillip, you are starting to sound like you are sliding to the right....8^)"

Many on this thread would be surprised by my voting since I first put a cross to ballot paper in 1979. The only time I have ever admitted how I voted was in the EU referendum and I wish i had not told anyone - lots of family argument followed

My family all think they know how I have voted. I reply that it's a secret ballot for a reason.

BTW I also like to debate sometimes just for the fun of it.

I have also been in a union out on strike and crossed a picket line to continue working being shouted at - the reasons don't matter now.

I only came close to standing for election once following the expenses scandal when all parties and MPs from all sides had bled the system for their own financial gain. My local MP on the hustings had to listen to me telling him he should have been in jail not apologising - as I would have been if I had done what he had in the military. He happened to be a Conservative. Next Constituency over was Labour with exactly the same problem

In my view all 650 should have been dismissed and banned from standing again. Even ones who had not fiddled had been complicit in allowing the system to operate. It was a right wing paper that broke the story.

Off topic.

In Covid thread we can see in actual terms how effective the EU is being in vaccinations. I hate to think how many would be dead with the UK following EU timetable.

[[deleted user]]

Philip, I think you would make a good MP. I would vote for you - well, providing there wasn't a global pandemic going on at the time ;)

Having read all of your posts since joining this group, I believe that you have always voted Conservative, with the exception of 1997 when you voted Labour. That said, part of me thinks you might have been drawn towards the Lib Dems during the Paddy Ashdown years. Feel free to confirm, deny or keep your voting record private :)

As you alluded to Captain Hindsight and the virus on this thread, I'm going to make a prediction...

When Boris announces that the lockdown is finally going to be lifted, Labour will claim that he's doing it too soon and putting lives at risk. That will be the moment when they condemn themselves to an even greater length of time in the political wilderness.

[Papaphilly]

How are things going with Brexit since the signing? Many large issues? I am not really hearing the world coming to an end.

[Scout]

I admit I've never understood Brexit. I'd love to hear how it's affected people's daily lives. That might help me understand if it's a good or bad thing.

[Philip]

Beau wrote: "Philip, I think you would make a good MP. I would vote for you - well, providing there wasn't a global pandemic going on at the time ;)

Having read all of your posts since joining this group, I b..."

You'd be mad to vote for me at any time...

No confirmation except 1997 I was in USA and my father had a proxy vote. He didn't ask me and I didn't ask him - he had the same view on elections and voting but encouraged all of us (3 siblings) to vote

[Philip]

On Brexit day to day I have not seen anything; however untangling impact of COVID and impact of Brexit is not easy. Issues reported in Northern Ireland regarding imports from mainland. Issues reported with some fish not being allowed into Europe.

Already had some disruption due to COVID testing of truck drivers across the channel

I am sure there have been business issues and I am sure some have been disrupted, Fixing anything is also hampered by COVID and we have seen the EU approach over the vaccine - suspect we will see many issues with EU suddenly imposing rules. I think UK has been hidden from these whilst it was in EU whereas rest of the world was used to it

If UK starts striking trade deals in addition to EU and others then we will see more protectionist behaviour by EU bureaucrats and commission whilst individual countries will continue to think about leaving.

The vaccine issues have certainly opened some eyes about how good the EU is at doing things. Take a look at the vaccine rates in EU compared to UK/Israel/USA/UAE. Blocking trade is one thing killing your own people by inaction will not reflect well.

[[deleted user]]

Scout and Papaphilly, in all honesty, it’s too soon to say how Brexit has impacted most people’s lives. As Philip said, the pandemic/ reaction to it has made the before and after comparisons very difficult.

After the positive stories highlighted on this thread in the last few weeks, there was a negative one over the weekend about the sharp decline in road haulage travelling through the channel ports. I’ll be honest, I’m guilty of cancel culture here because I refused to read it :) Forgive me for this but after 5 years of relentless media negativity on Brexit (known in the UK as ‘Project Fear’), I’ve stopped paying attention to that kind of story. However, alongside the headline, I did note that the Government has disputed the figures and obviously GB and wider Europe has been locked down, but I can’t give you any more information than that. On the other side of the coin, I saw headlines in this morning’s Financial Times that non-channel ports, like Liverpool, are actually benefitting from Brexit, while manufacturers in places like Birmingham have seen a rise in their exports due to the weakening/ more competitive pound. In the interests of impartiality, I didn’t read these stories either ;)

In short, like with any policy, economically it will be a case of swings and roundabouts, with some benefitting and others not, but those that struggle will have to adapt because the people have spoken.

With that thought in mind, one change I can absolutely confirm is that the UK is, once again, a sovereign country with the full ability to shape our own destiny. Surely, this can only be a good thing and a benefit to everyone? Looking forwards, it also means that the success, or otherwise, of Brexit is in our own hands.

[Ian]

I also think it is wrong to do "before and after" analyses because it is always debatable what would have happened if you had not done it. My view is, once done, live with it and make the best of it.

[[deleted user]]

Ian wrote: "I also think it is wrong to do "before and after" analyses because it is always debatable what would have happened if you had not done it. My view is, once done, live with it and make the best of it."

Wise words, Ian. I agree with you.

[Papaphilly]

Beau wrote: "With that thought in mind, one change I can absolutely confirm is that the UK is, once again, a sovereign country with the full ability to shape our own destiny...."

One last question for a while, has the movement of people been affected for those that were already there? Do they get to stay, have to go, get a visa? I tend to remember that it was some issue of renowned early on.

[Philip]

Papaphilly wrote: "Beau wrote: "With that thought in mind, one change I can absolutely confirm is that the UK is, once again, a sovereign country with the full ability to shape our own destiny...."

One last question..."

UK was not part of Schenegan but technically whilst in EU travel was free. Of course ferries, airlines and trains all required a passport. Once in Europe travel was without passports between areas and no need to register - French hotels still made visitors show ID. Different rules applied for work but free movement was in place. (Actually it pretty much was before it came into force.)

Since, we don't know because of COVID restrictions with bans in EU and outside on movement varying almost by the hour Eben UK has different rules in Scotland, NI, Wales and England. No one is supposed to be going anywhere at the moment

Truck drivers are crossing from port to port some countries requiring tests before travel some not.
Resident in place i.e. EU citizens in UK and UK citizens in EU have carried on as before. Lockdowns permitting.

There will supposedly be restrictions on work but again this is registration not band. The difference is no right to work/stay travel.

[[deleted user]]

Papaphilly wrote: "Beau wrote: "With that thought in mind, one change I can absolutely confirm is that the UK is, once again, a sovereign country with the full ability to shape our own destiny...."

One last question..."

As long as they make their application to the EU Settlement Scheme, they get to stay, and so do their families.