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Wealth & Economics > Bubble or Double?

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message 1: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 13796 comments The recent announcement about acquisition of LinkedIn by Microsoft for 26 billion USD made me look at the list of 'public' (a bit ironic) companies with the highest market capitalization (or simply speaking - most valuable companies) again:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...
Of course the list is pre-acquisition.
4 out of 10 are now high-tech without (on a relative scale, of course) considerable physical manufacturing facilities, natural resources or real estate. But they all have huge client base.
If, on the other hand, you look at the list of companies with the highest revenues, the highest place any of the above 4 achieved is # 50.
Although Microsoft boast incredible stability remaining in the top 10 for something like 20 years, but we can still ask the question whether in the long run MS as well as Google, Facebook and Amazon kings for a day or they come to stay, what do you think?


Tara Woods Turner | 2063 comments No company can survive without moving towards the almighty cloud.


message 3: by Alex (new)

Alex (asato) Tara wrote: "No company can survive without moving towards the almighty cloud."

true--for now.

the cloud is a reinvention of client-server computing w/mainframes and timesharing but w/higher bandwidth, a robust internet, more powerful computing power and efficiency, virtualization, a richer UI, and larger and more diverse user base.

the economic landscape is constantly and rapidly changing.

yahoo was there in the beginning of the internet and then google took it out.

microsoft and apple were there in the beginning too. microsoft took apple out, but then w/its innovations, starting w/the ipod, apple took out microsoft.

the company i work for is part of the Churchill Club, which has some really great presentations and panels. one of them is about "Creating and Dominating Category Markets"

"category market" is just another spin on "niche marketing". for us authors, niche could be genre but more likely it's a sub-genre or sub-sub-sub-genre. and finding a niche for your book/brand is one of the keys to success in the current economic situation


Tara Woods Turner | 2063 comments Alex G
Cool breakdown. This also explains MS's decision to buy. They want to optimize headhunting and HR p2p interface for the cloud era, in my humble opinion. I haven't paid this much attention to MS in awhile and I would have forgotten them altogether were it not for MS 360. I guess they're regrouping nicely.


message 5: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 13796 comments Alex G wrote: "yahoo was there in the beginning of the internet and then google took it out."

If I reminisce far back to the beginning of internet era, I was particularly fond of AltaVista, may it rest in peace -:)


Tara Woods Turner | 2063 comments Ha! I loved Altavista for translations. I remember coding my first website on Angelfire lol - truly amazing at the time so all of my friends thought I was some sort of wizard.


message 7: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 9779 comments First, I don't think the comparison with revenue is useful because where there is competition, unit profit tends to be very low. Exxon-Mobil gets there eventually through the huge turnover. On the other hand, as long as we fill up cars with petrol Exxon has a guaranteed market. I am not so sure about Microsoft/Apple etc. They can only stay up there as long as they are the inventors of "the next big thing" in this type of market. Assuming there is a next big thing, of course.


Tara Woods Turner | 2063 comments Interesting. Apple and MS stay on top because they create the market as opposed to just cornering it. Apple is great at fending off open sourcers while MS is willing to be the ugly stepsister so long as they have respect from big business/institutions. In this light the LinkedIn buy makes absolute sense. When MS strays from this model they fail miserably and have to write off millions in bad acquisitions. I imagine that ten years from now headhunting firms and HR hiring departments will be replaced by one guy in a cubicle with a company MS/LinkedIn mega interface.


message 9: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 13796 comments Ian wrote: "They can only stay up there as long as they are the inventors of "the next big thing" in this type of market. Assuming there is a next big thing, of course.."

Or, as long as they can detect and purchase the next big thing early on, just like Facebook purchased Whatsapp before the latter became gigantic


message 10: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 13796 comments Tara wrote: "I imagine that ten years from now headhunting firms and HR hiring departments will be replaced by one guy in a cubicle with a company MS/LinkedIn mega interface...."

Sounds dystopian -:) But they should take into account that Facebook or Google + can add a 'business feature' on their existing networks any moment or find another solution to entice their shared customers to choose Face or Goog


Tara Woods Turner | 2063 comments I imagine MS has done projections. If I am any indication of the market I will never fully associate fb with business and google only minimally and after several years of targeted conversions. After a decade of vacation selfies and friend pokes on fb it will require a monumental strategic assault to undermine what LinkedIn has come to represent for professional connectivity.


message 12: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 13796 comments Tara wrote: "If I am any indication of the market I will never fully associate fb with business and google only minimally and after several years of targeted conversions.."

I'm not sure they'd want to merge 'cool' with business since it rarely goes together, but for most part they all share the same clients, so whoever offers something a little better, may chop off a considerable slice. I moved to Google from Yahoo, because Google's engine at the time just brought back much closer results to what I was looking for...


Tara Woods Turner | 2063 comments Somehow I see fb clients as being different from LinkedIn clients. The former uses the internet to relax and/or voyeuristically keep up with other people. LinkedIn clients are proactive and reactive professionals who use the internet to expand, analyze and utilize their markets. If fb or google could find a way to make business interface more down market they could arguably corner a share of the market, but again, it would only be a small slice of the market that LI created and dominates.

Agree about google. They beat Yahoo at both the search engine and email game. And Yahoo is so easily hacked, to boot.


message 14: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 13796 comments Looks like the beginning of the winter is a good time to re-evaluate what we'd discussed in the beginning of the summer -:)


message 15: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 9779 comments Shiver away! I am hoping to bask in some sunshine :-)


message 16: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan Amazon.

Market cap is approx $400B

Profit is approx $1B (if I remember correctly)

One of those numbers is going to change big time. Either market cap will reduce to 15-20B or profit will increase to 15-20B.

(Sniffs the air, what is that I smell? No it couldn't be. But ... wait ... my goodness, it really does smell just like the dot com bubble of '99.)


message 17: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 9779 comments Graeme - short the stock and spread the word :-)


message 18: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan hehehe.


message 19: by J.J. (new)

J.J. Mainor | 2151 comments Graeme Rodaughan wrote: "Amazon.

Market cap is approx $400B

Profit is approx $1B (if I remember correctly)

One of those numbers is going to change big time. Either market cap will reduce to 15-20B or profit will increa..."

I think you were watching Nightly Business Report last night...

I was only half listening when they brought this up and the guy they spoke with downplayed that valuation.


message 20: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan Hi J.J.

I remember the dot com bubble very well. I worked for two companies during that time, both went to over $1B AUD in value and then crashed.

The second went into administration while I was working there.

Tough times.

Amazon isn't the only tech major that has a capital value that is "highly speculative" versus its actual profit.


message 21: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan Tara wrote: "No company can survive without moving towards the almighty cloud."

Hi Tara, there are a lot of companies who will not go onto the Cloud.

[1] It's not always cost effective.

[2] Security is still an issue.


message 22: by Nik (last edited Jun 10, 2019 10:27AM) (new)

Nik Krasno | 13796 comments Three years after, still looking strong:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...
High-tech, internet, social networks, e-commerce, will these behemoths will be able to buy out anything posing a potential threat to their domination or this rapidly changing market is still open for new players to reach these heights ?


message 23: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 9779 comments Nik, you can't buy out someone who does not want to sell. Of course a lot of start-ups get sol out because the original entrepreneurs get tired of actually running a business. The real problem for a newbie is to have notice taken. ( A bit like indie authors.) Take running in opposition to something like ebay. Why is anyone going to your site to sell when all the buyers go to ebay?


message 24: by P.G. (last edited Jun 27, 2019 10:21PM) (new)

P.G. Sundling (pgsundling) | 20 comments Graeme wrote: "Tara wrote: "No company can survive without moving towards the almighty cloud."

Hi Tara, there are a lot of companies who will not go onto the Cloud.

[1] It's not always cost-effective.

[2] Secu..."


Edge devices will increasingly be phones and laptops. Not that I don't still have a personal Linux server at home.

There have been several shifts between client and server as the hub of computing for the last few decades. The cloud is the final move. Sun Microsystems was a bit early with utility computing. I can tell you in 2018/2019 everything of appreciable size will be moving to the cloud. Where security is an issue, segregated or internal cloud systems will be used.

Costs will improve over time. Commonly used platforms provide economies of scale and remove all the plumbing aspect.

The entire paradigm is shifting, even on the programming side. Things are moving from full programs to lambdas, where you just have some little piece of code that runs in a container. I retired as this shift was happening.

At some point, education needs to move to a common platform, as I mention in my book.


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