Real #s from a published SFF writer

[Quantum]

Very instructive!

http://www.kameronhurley.com/hey-kame...

[Nik]

Thanks for bringing up those numbers. Informative indeed. If this author self-published, with such sales she would've netted probably more (less agent and less publisher), but would she'd been able to gain the same momentum?
Which brings me to think, how much does the publisher invest into 'production & promotion' of each NEW (because for best-selling authors the calculation and investment might be totally different) title?
What's the edge that trad publishers have? Using the rule of a thumb, since I don't have the real numbers or industry experience, I would say the following:
- the publishers might invest between a little and a lot more into editing (few editors) and cover design. Lets put a price tag of 3K USD
- the publisher procures editorial reviews from reputed fellow authors, reviewers, bloggers, journals, whatever. I'm not sure they pay for all of these, but some reviews are available for sale, like Kirkus and stuff.. Lets estimate it at another 3k
- they print stock of physical books and distribute them to the book stores. How many do they print? For a debut, not too many I guess. 10-15K? If I can buy a copy of my own book on Createspace for a little less than 4 usd, I guess a trad publisher would pay no more than half of that. Let's say 2$ per each. 20-30K
- Publicity, launching party? I'm not sure, they do it for all in the same scope and the expenditure would largely depend on publisher's sales' potential estimate, but let's say another 20K.
- And yes, they pay an advance to the author of, let's say, 5k.
I'm looking here at 50-60k investment and they take all the risk on the one hand and much of the upside on the other.

Don't think most self-publishers can beat that number and those who maybe could are unlikely to do so. What's my conclusion? To me it looks like trad publishing is still more advantageous for aspiring authors and less so for established 'brand' authors.
Just some thoughts based on some feeble math and assumptions -:)

[Ian]

Nik, I think the trad publishers will spend more than 3k on editing and cover design, and for that their name as a publisher is a guarantee of at least a minimal standard of production. That is a clear edge for some readers, who seem to think Indies produce ill-prepared rubbish. (Unfortunately, some do.) The publisher will also spend on getting reviews, etc, which is a clear start. As for print runs, I gather a hitherto unknown author will probably get a run of no more than 5k. (Of course it is easy to print more should an unexpected demand arise.) My guess is the newbie will be struggling to get much spent on the launching party, but the publisher may well get space in a major New York bookshop cheap - by promising to have the launch of the next big author in their stable there. Most bookshops will go a long way to secure the next Stephen King book, say.

I rather fancy most newbies actually run at either a loss or a close run thing, which will make the publisher skimp. They do it in case they inadvertently stumble on the next King, and also because they need to show activity - it is always helpful for a big house to have something on regularly.

The problem for the newbie on trad publishing is (a) it is devilishly hard to get accepted, (b) it then takes about 2 years to know whether it has worked, and (c) if you do trad publish, and fail, then you will find it hard to get on the band wagon again.

I self-published for one reason: at my age, and with the back-log of books I had written, and my initial failures at getting trad publishers, I reached a point where at my age I would be dead before many could possibly see the light of day. Self-publishing was my only option. Who knows what would have happened had I got accepted, but I am not sorry I went this way.

[Nik]

Ian wrote: "Nik, I think the trad publishers will spend more than 3k on editing and cover design, and for that their name as a publisher is a guarantee of at least a minimal standard of production. That is a c..."

Sure, I understand your reasoning.
On the first book, we've tried agents but with no success, on the second book I haven't even bothered. My feeling after corresponding with some of them was that agents and publishers they work with are pretty good in evaluating sales in the types and markets they know. For example, they can quite effectively evaluate how many pieces they can sell of a well-written detective story about a murder case taking place in a small town in the US, but much less confident about anything beyond what they had previous experience with. That's why they are quite reluctant in taking anything that they are unsure as of sales' potential. Can understand them business wise, however such approach makes it near impossible for a new author to close a normal publishing deal within the reasonable time frame...

[Ian]

Nik, you make another good point. If the publisher receives a romance or a crime story set in the US and written by someone living in a major US city, they will be more likely to give it a go, especially since they can get their hands on the author and for very little output, generate some publicity about "local boy makes good". Selling a few thousand copies written by a local and see in LA, say, is nowhere nearly as difficult as, well, stuff like mine. The problem is from a cultural point of view, novelty get submerged in a sea of sameness.

[Nik]

Ian wrote: "The problem is from a cultural point of view, novelty get submerged in a sea of sameness..."

Exactly. Agents and publishers, as opposed to most/some of the authors are not for the art there. They come for business and they aim at making money. Nothing else matters. In most cases they prefer a lower risks and higher expectations of the profit, so for most of them it would probably be better to publish 5-6 mainstream books that they know they can sell a few thousand thereof and make a reasonable profit rather than invest into something totally unpredictable. And even with such approach they often don't break even on debut titles.
On the other hand, admitedly they probably do take risks on some titles if they feel exceptionally excited about them, but the opening is very narrow, it seems...