'The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't' by Nate Silver

[Aaron]

Just finished reading the New York Times bestseller 'The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't' by Nate Silver. The book explores the factors that complicate forecasting across many fields, with a focus on the economy. The book also delves into the subtle things that can be done to help make us better predictors. Essentially, Silver brings a little science to the the art of prediction. The book is superb. I've written a full executive summary of the book here:

http://newbooksinbrief.com/2012/10/15...

Cheers,
Aaron

[Angus]

Thanks Aaron. I like the look of this and will put it on my to read list. I can't see anything about geological prediction, the area I work in, but I expect there would be analogous lessons to learn.

[Aaron]

Hey Angus. The book has a chapter dedicated to earthquake prediction, but I was unable to cover it in my summary. The general gist is that we have almost no ability to accurately predict earthquakes (though this hasn't stopped people from trying, often using a statistical approach in doing so. But these statistical efforts have failed miserably). The only clue we have here is that sometimes (but only sometimes) earthquakes come in bunches. For instance, several minor earthquakes hit the l'Aquila area before the major one hit a couple of years ago.

There is the hope that as the instruments that we use to measure seismic activity deep in the earth's crust increase in sophistication that we may someday do better in our earthquake predictions.