consider incentives to think rationally about the media. Politicians often have skeletons in their closet, and face daily temptations to add to their collection. Unbiased beliefs about the probability of getting caught and the severity of the backlash are useful tools of political survival. This does not mean that politicians put zero value on illicit fun, but we should expect them to make intelligent trade-offs. Clinton’s relations with “that woman, Miss Lewinsky” ultimately drew massive media attention, but he took many measures along the way to protect himself.
