The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies

by Bryan Caplan

If you listen to your fellow citizens, you get the impression that they disagree. How many times have you heard, “Every vote matters”? But people are less credulous than they sound. The infamous poll tax—which restricted the vote to those willing to pay for it—provides a clean illustration. If individuals acted on the belief that one vote makes a big difference, they would be willing to pay a lot to participate. Few are. Historically, poll taxes significantly reduced turnout.65 There is little reason to think that matters are different today. Imagine setting a poll tax to reduce presidential turnout from 50% to 5%. How high would it have to be? A couple hundred dollars? What makes the poll tax alarming is that most of us subconsciously know that most of us subconsciously know that one vote does not count.