The most common excuses were: 1. The “If only” defense—If only the Federal Reserve had raised rates, then the prediction would have been true. Effectively, the experts claim that they would have been correct if only their advice had been followed. 2. The “ceteris paribus” defense—Something outside of the model of analysis occurred, which invalidated the forecast; therefore it isn’t my fault. 3. The “I was almost right” defense—Although the predicted outcome didn’t occur, it almost did. 4. The “It just hasn’t happened yet” defense—I wasn’t wrong, it just hasn’t occurred yet. This is my personal
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