How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns

by Audrey Kurth Cronin

On the whole, democracies have been the most legitimate governments in the modern world, and thus they have had the most staying power against terrorism. That said, democracies or liberal governments face particular short-term difficulties in repressing terrorist groups. Because military or police action requires a target, the use of force against operatives works best in situations where members of the organization can be separated from the general population. This essentially forces “profiling” or some method of distinguishing members from nonmembers—always a sensitive issue, particularly when the only available means of discrimination relates to how members are defined (race, age, religion, nationality, etc.) rather than what they do (or are planning to do). Excellent intelligence is essential for the latter, especially in advance of an attack, but even in the best of situations it is typically scarce. Repressive measures also carry high resource and opportunity costs. Long-term repressive measures against suspected operatives may challenge civil liberties and human rights, undermine domestic support, polarize political parties, and strain the fabric of the state itself, thus further undercutting its ability to respond effectively to future terrorist attacks. Mistakes and abuses by governments, including democracies, are endemic in counterterrorism, but usually democracies have the stamina to maintain internal support as they learn and adapt their methods over time.