How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns

by Audrey Kurth Cronin

destruction” (especially nuclear) by a nonstate actor, represents a looming threat of which many are aware. The proliferation of nuclear technology and materials following the breakup of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War holds greater potential and opportunity for groups such as al-Qaeda (and associates) to buy or steal a small nuclear device. The international community is right to focus on this problem; in particular, a large number of academics and policymakers who dealt with nuclear weapons and the complicated theology of nuclear strategy during the Cold War have turned their attention to the breakdown of the international nonproliferation regime, and are coming up with new means of controlling or tracing nuclear substances (especially highly enriched uranium). This is an outstanding use of their skills that may well lead to a reduction in this threat.59 One only hopes that extensive knowledge of the supply side of nuclear weapons technology is eventually matched by equal sophistication regarding the demand side, especially the motivations and opportunities of nonstate actors (about which there is relatively little good research). In any case, if a terrorist group were to use a nonconventional weapon, there is no doubt that the result would almost immediately be major war. The second, much less discussed or well-known threat is the use of conventional terrorism as a catalyst for interstate war. As we have seen, terrorism feeds both hope and insecurity. Attac...