How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns

by Audrey Kurth Cronin

Repression resulted in polarization, both within Russia and within the Chechen republic: on the one hand, following each terrorist attack blamed on Chechen operatives there was an outflow of passionate Russian hatred of the Chechens; this seemed to have a palpable influence on the evolution of the Russian state toward more executive power, more restriction of civil liberties, and greater willingness to use force. Terrorist attacks succeeded in mobilizing the Russian population against the Chechens, even as they failed to stir the Chechen people. On the other hand, there was a fractionizing occurring within Chechnya itself, as the Kremlin-supported government seemed to engage in criminal behavior against its own people and increasing numbers of Chechens seemed to be swayed by militant Islamic groups. There was no going back from this repression, as the regime deliberately made negotiations impossible: in March 2005, the Russian security forces assassinated Aslan Maskhadov, elected president of the separatist government of Chechnya and the only person with whom the state might possibly have talked.