How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns

by Audrey Kurth Cronin

A wide range of variables can determine the efficacy of negotiations to end terrorism, including the nature of the organization of the group (hierarchical groups having an advantage over groups that cannot control their members’ actions), the nature of the leadership of the group (groups with a strong leader having an advantage over those that are decentralized), and the nature of public support for the cause (groups with constituencies who support peace being more likely to compromise). There must also be negotiable aims, which are more likely to exist with territorially based groups than with those that primarily espouse left-wing, right-wing or religious/spiritualist ideologies—although a careful study of the record indicates that over time groups evolve in their goals, or their dedication to them, invalidating superficial assumptions on this score.128