How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns

by Audrey Kurth Cronin

When terrorist attacks are used to mobilize, they are not necessarily directed toward changing the behavior of a state at all; they aim instead to invigorate and energize those who would support a group or its cause and to raise its profile internationally, attracting resources, sympathizers, and allies. If a group is successful in mobilizing large numbers, this strategy can prolong the fight and enable the threat to transition to other forms, including insurgency and conventional war. A mobilization strategy is focused primarily on the audience; the target and even the political objective may change to suit the needs of the audience. This strategy is uniquely well suited to the twenty-first century’s globalized international community, which allows movements to mobilize on a scale and at a speed never before seen; and it also gets to the heart of why so many see the struggle with religiously inspired militancy led by al-Qaida as a multigenerational “long war.” These four strategies are not mutually exclusive, and we have already mentioned a fifth: to erode a state’s legitimacy at home and abroad. A group may use a combination of several, even all, of these strategies; but what a state does in response is at the core of their efficacy. Reactions by a state in the narrow framework of one may be counterproductive with respect to the others. Thus, counterterrorism strategies that are designed to prevent a state from being compelled by a group founder if the goal is to provoke...