How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns

by Audrey Kurth Cronin

Popular support for a terrorist group can dissipate for a number of reasons. First, people who are not especially interested in the political aims of a group may fear government counteraction. Apathy is a powerful force; all else being equal, most people naturally prefer to live their daily lives without the threat of being targeted by counterterrorism laws, regulations, sanctions, raids, and threats. Sometimes even highly radicalized populations can pull back from active or passive support for a group, especially if the government engages in strong repressive measures and people simply become exhausted. The apparent loss of local popular support for Chechen terrorist groups is a good example. Second, the government may offer supporters of a terrorist group a better alternative. Reforms, increased spending, and job creation in underserved areas can all erode sources of terrorist violence. But this approach is not a panacea: it can also result in heightened instability and a sense of political opportunity, situations that have sometimes led to more terrorist acts.