A.J. McMahon

71%
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How? Say I test some chemotherapy, for instance Fluorouracil, for upper respiratory tract cancer, and find that it is better than a placebo, but only marginally so; that (in addition to other modalities) it improves survival from 21 per 100 to 24 per 100. Given my sample size, I may not be confident that the additional 3% survival points come from the medicine; it could be merely attributable to randomness.
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto, #1)
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