A.J. McMahon

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For example, after registering a profit of $100,000 on a given strategy, I may assign a 2% probability to the hypothesis of the strategy being profitable and 98% probability to the hypothesis that the performance may be the result of mere noise. A gain of $1 million on the other hand, certifies that the strategy is a profitable one, with a 99% probability.
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto, #1)
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