Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto, #1)

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“my principal activity is to tease those who take themselves and the quality of their knowledge too seriously.”

Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.

(in the real world one has to guess the problem more than the solution).

“The observation of the numerous misfortunes that attend all conditions forbids us to grow insolent upon our present enjoyments, or to admire a man’s happiness that may yet, in course of time, suffer change. For the uncertain future has yet to come, with all variety of future; and him only to whom the divinity has [guaranteed] continued happiness until the end we may call happy.”

Lucky fools do not bear the slightest suspicion that they may be lucky fools—by

Heroes are heroes because they are heroic in behavior, not because they won or lost.

I do not dispute that arguments should be simplified to their maximum potential; but people often confuse complex ideas that cannot be simplified into a media-friendly statement as symptomatic of a confused mind.