Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto, #1)
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Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.
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(there is no such thing as bad publicity: Some people manage to promote your work by insulting
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Of course chance favors the prepared! Hard work, showing up on time, wearing a clean (preferably white) shirt, using deodorant, and some such conventional things contribute to success—they are certainly necessary but may be insufficient as they do not cause success.
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this business of journalism is about pure entertainment, not a search for truth, particularly when it comes to radio and television.
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that which came with the help of luck could be taken away by luck (and often rapidly and unexpectedly at that). The flipside, which deserves to be considered as well (in fact it is even more of our concern), is that things that come with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness.
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Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.