Phillip Gonzales

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Notice how our brain sometimes gets the arrow of causality backward. Assume that good qualities cause success; based on that assumption, even though it seems intuitively correct to think so, the fact that every intelligent, hardworking, persevering person becomes successful does not imply that every successful person is necessarily an intelligent, hardworking, persevering person (it is remarkable how such a primitive logical fallacy—affirming the consequent—can be made by otherwise very intelligent people, a point I discuss in this edition as the “two systems of reasoning” problem).
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto, #1)
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