Naturally the analog to fabricating populations of Zorglubs was to simulate a population of “idiotic bull,” “impetuous bear,” and “cautious” traders under different market regimes, say booms and busts, and to examine their short-term and long-term survival. Under such a structure, “idiotic bull” traders who get rich from the rally would use the proceeds to buy more assets, driving prices higher, until their ultimate shellacking. Bearish traders, though, rarely made it in the boom to get to the bust. My models showed that ultimately almost nobody really survived; bears dropped out like flies in
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