There are suckers’ methods called “scenario analysis” and “stress testing”—usually based on the past (or on some “make sense” theory). Yet (I showed earlier how) past shortfalls do not predict subsequent shortfalls, so we do not know what exactly to stress-test for. Likewise, “prediction markets” do not function here, since bets do not protect an open-ended exposure. They might work for a binary election, but not in the Fourth Quadrant.
