War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires

by Peter Turchin

So what can the theories that we discussed in this book tell us about the dynamics of the world’s current hegemonic empire? As we have seen, what makes empires function are the qualities of their core nations, of which the most important is asabiya. American asabiya might be on a decline, if recent trends in social capital are good indicators, but the U.S. still has an abundance when compared to other large contemporary countries. The response of the American nation to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 is clear evidence that the U.S. is highly capable of collective action. Most tellingly, there was no attempt by the mainstream opposition party, the Democrats, to use the events of 9/11 and the subsequent course of military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq as a means of political infighting against the ruling Republicans, even though the Bush administration arguably committed a number of grave errors.

Even though modern societies have solved the problem of feeding the population, they are still susceptible to the elite overproduction problem. Will intra-elite competition escalate into violence and cause Western states to collapse even in the presence of democratic institutions, designed to channel conflict into peaceful forms? Can we find a middle way between redistributive state socialism and letting the Matthew principle run amok, creating inequality and undermining cooperation?