Clear Thinking: Turning Ordinary Moments into Extraordinary Results

by Shane Parrish

When our ego takes over and we show someone we’re the boss, we make the future harder.

Our ego tempts us into thinking we’re more than we are. Left unchecked, it can turn confidence into overconfidence or even arrogance. We get a bit of knowledge on the internet and suddenly we are full of hubris. Everything seems easy. As a result, we take risks that we may not understand we’re taking. We must resist this kind of unearned confidence, though, if we are to get the results we desire.

Our desire to feel right overpowers our desire to be right.

If you do what everyone else does, you’ll get the same results that everyone else gets.[*] Best practices aren’t always the best. By definition, they’re average.

The inertia default pushes us to maintain the status quo. Starting something is hard but so too is stopping something.[1] We resist change even when change is for the best.

You might not have someone in your life who holds you accountable, but that doesn’t matter. You can hold yourself accountable. Others might not expect more from you, but you can expect more from yourself. No one else need reward or punish you into it.

self-serving bias, a habit of evaluating things in ways that protect or enhance our self-image. Statements like “It was a great idea just poorly executed,” “We did the best we could,” and “We never should’ve been in this situation in the first place” are often manifestations of this bias.

One of the most common mistakes people make is bargaining with how the world should work instead of accepting how it does work. Anytime you find yourself or your colleagues complaining “that’s not right,” or “that’s not fair,” or “it shouldn’t be that way,” you’re bargaining, not accepting. You want the world to work in a way that it doesn’t.

Self-accountability is the strength of realizing that even though you don’t control everything, you do control how you respond to everything. It’s a mindset that empowers you to act and not just react to whatever life throws at you.

Each of us also has a limited perspective on things: we can see and know only so much. In addition, we have inbuilt tendencies to form judgments and opinions even in the absence of knowledge.

There is a gap in our thinking that comes from believing that the way we see the world is the way the world really works. It’s only when we change our perspective—when we look at the situation through the eyes of other people—that we realize what we’re missing.

Alcoholics Anonymous has a helpful safeguard for its members. They call it HALT—an acronym that stands for Hungry, Angry, Lonely, and Tired.

The four steps to handling mistakes more effectively are as follows: (1) accept responsibility, (2) learn from the mistake, (3) commit to doing better, and (4) repair the damage as best you can.

there’s a way to convert the hindsight of tomorrow into the foresight of today. It’s a thought experiment that psychologists call premortem. The concept isn’t new, it originates in Stoic philosophy. Seneca used premeditatio malorum (“the premeditation of evils”) to prepare for the inevitable ups and downs of life. The point isn’t to worry about problems; it’s to fortify and prepare for them.

Now that we have a sense of the immediate outcomes of Maria’s options, it’s time to apply second-level thinking. We must consider the outcomes of those outcomes, the answer to the question, “And then what?”

the 3+ principle: Force yourself to explore at least three possible solutions to a problem. If you find yourself considering only two options, force yourself to find at least one more.

safeguard: Come up with Both-And options. Try to find ways of combining the binary. Think not in terms of choosing either X or Y, but rather having both X and Y.

Clarity: The criteria should be simple, clear, and free of any jargon. Ideally, you should be able to explain them to a twelve-year-old. Goal promotion: The criteria must favor only those options that achieve the desired goal. Decisiveness: The criteria must favor exactly one option; they can’t result in a tie among several.

the alap principle: If the cost to undo a decision is high, make it as late as possible.

you should wait as long as possible when making an important decision. You want to give yourself as many options in the future so that if something changes, you have the space to maneuver and reposition yourself along the path of greatest opportunity.

the stop, flop, know principle: Stop gathering more information and execute your decision when either you Stop gathering useful information, you First Lose an OPportunity (FLOP), or you come to Know something that makes it evident what option you should choose.

tip: The margin of safety is often sufficient when it can absorb double the worst-case scenario. So the baseline for a margin of safety is one that could withstand twice the amount of problems that would cause a crisis, or maintain twice the amount of resources needed to rebuild after a crisis.

Many people assume that good decisions get good outcomes and bad ones don’t. But that’s not true. The quality of a single decision isn’t determined by the quality of the outcome.

safeguard: Keep a record of your thoughts at the time you make the decision. Don’t rely on your memory after the fact. Trying to recall what you knew and thought at the time you made the decision is a fool’s game.

Good decisions, on the other hand, align with your long-term goals and values, and ultimately bring you the satisfaction and fulfillment that you truly desire in business, relationships, and life.

Wisdom is turning your future hindsight into your current foresight. What seems to matter in the moment rarely matters in life, yet what matters in life always matters in the moment.