Mercer argued that this whole system was much more unstable than anyone had yet realized. “I contend that a major disaster—a rapid five meter [16 foot] rise in sea level, caused by the deglaciation of West Antarctica—may be imminent,” he wrote, predicting it would lead to the “submergence of low-lying areas like Florida and the Netherlands.” Mercer didn’t know how soon this might happen, but when he made his calculations in the mid-1970s, he predicted that if fossil fuel consumption continued to accelerate, it could begin in fifty years. That is, right about now.
