Imagine a tennis match in which Roger Federer is playing John, who is ranked 500 in the world. I ask you to bet 5 percent of your wealth on John winning the match. You refuse (I hope). But John wants you to bet on him. And so, before the match starts, in a face-to-face meeting with you, John makes an impassioned plea to ignore his ranking and recognize his innate talent. He speaks eloquently and makes a slick PowerPoint presentation on his plan to defeat Federer. John says he has been watching Federer’s game very closely for the past two years, and his plan, he believes, is exemplary. To
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