End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration

by Peter Turchin

As of 2022, we are clearly in transition from the precrisis phase, when the state is still struggling to maintain control of the ideological landscape in the face of a multitude of counter-elite challengers, to the next phase, when numerous contenders struggle among themselves for primacy. Politicians who still cling to old-regime values, which emphasize moderation and intraelite cooperation, have been retiring, or losing elections to challengers with more extreme views. The ideological center today resembles a country road in Texas, almost deserted save for the yellow stripe and dead armadillos. As a result of the center’s collapse, ideological infighting is shifting from the struggle against the old regime (or in defense of it) to the struggle between different elite factions. Ideological differences are now used as a weapon in intraelite conflicts, both to pull down members of the established elites and to draw ahead of rival aspirants.