How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything In Between

by Bent Flyvbjerg

After debating in print, Kahneman invited me to meet and discuss matters further. I also arranged for him to visit megaproject planners so he could study their experiences firsthand. Eventually each of us came to accept the other’s position: psychology for me and politics for Kahneman.[7] Which factor is most important depends on the character of decisions and projects. In Kahneman’s laboratory experiments, the stakes are low. There is typically no jockeying for position, no competition for scarce resources, no powerful individuals or organizations, no politics of any kind. The closer a project is to that situation, the more individual psychology will dominate, which is what Kahneman, Amos Tversky, and other behavioral scientists have found. But as projects get bigger and decisions more consequential, the influence of money and power grows. Powerful individuals and organizations make the decisions, the number of stakeholders increases, they lobby for their specific interests, and the name of the game is politics. And the balance shifts from psychology to strategic misrepresentation.[8]