How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything In Between

by Bent Flyvbjerg

You will recall that most project types are not only at risk of coming in late, going over budget, and generating fewer benefits than expected. They are at risk of going disastrously wrong. That means you may not wind up 10 percent over budget; you may go 100 percent over. Or 400 percent. Or worse. These are black swan outcomes, and the project types at risk of them are called “fat-tailed.” They include nuclear power plants, hydroelectric dams, information technology, tunnels, major buildings, aerospace, and many more. In fact, almost all the project types in my database are fat-tailed. But not quite all.