The mistake the planners made is as basic as it is common: When we experience delays and cost overruns, we naturally go looking for things that are slowing the project down and driving up costs. But those delays and overruns are measured against benchmarks. Are the benchmarks reasonable? Logically, that should be the first question that is asked, but it rarely comes up at all. Once we frame the problem as one of time and money overruns, it may never occur to us to consider that the real source of the problem is not overruns at all; it is underestimation. This project was doomed by a large
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