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August 4 - August 12, 2024
it doesn’t help that big projects involve money, reputations, and politics. Those who have much to lose will spin the numbers, so you cannot trust them. That’s not fraud. Or rather, it’s not usually fraud; it’s human nature. And with so many numbers to choose from, spinning is a lot easier than finding the truth.
In total, only 8.5 percent of projects hit the mark on both cost and time. And a minuscule 0.5 percent nail cost, time, and benefits. Or to put that another way, 91.5 percent of projects go over budget, over schedule, or both. And 99.5 percent of projects go over budget, over schedule, under benefits, or some combination of these. Doing what you said you would do should be routine, or at least common. But it almost never happens.
From the dramatic to the mundane to the trivial, change can rattle or ruin a project—if it occurs during the window of time when the project is ongoing. Solution? Close the window. Of course, a project can’t be completed instantly, so we can’t close the window entirely. But we can make the opening radically smaller by speeding up the project and bringing it to a conclusion faster. That is a main means of reducing risk on any project. In sum, keep it short!
To understand the right way to get a project done quickly, it’s useful to think of a project as being divided into two phases. This is a simplification, but it works: first, planning; second, delivery. The terminology varies by industry—in movies, it’s “development and production”; in architecture, “design and construction”—but the basic idea is the same everywhere: Think first, then do.
A project begins with a vision that is, at best, a vague image of the glorious thing the project will become. Planning is pushing the vision to the point where it is sufficiently researched, analyzed, tested, and detailed that we can be confident we have a reliable road map of the way forward. Most planning is done with computers, paper, and physical models, meaning that planning is relatively cheap and safe. Barring other time pressures, it’s fine for planning to be slow. Delivery is another matter. Delivery is when serious money is spent and the project becomes vulnerable as a consequence.
Planning is a safe harbor. Delivery is venturing across the storm-tossed seas.
Abraham Lincoln is reputed to have said that if he had five minutes to chop down a tree, he’d spend the first three sharpening the ax.[29] That’s exactly the right approach for big projects: Put enormous care and effort into planning to ensure that delivery is smooth and swift. Think slow, act fast: That’s the secret of success.
Caesar Augustus, whose personal motto was “Festina lente,” or “Make haste slowly.”
People say that projects “go wrong,” which they all too often do. But phrasing it that way is misleading; projects don’t go wrong so much as they start wrong.
Purposes and goals are not carefully considered. Alternatives are not explored. Difficulties and risks are not investigated. Solutions are not found. Instead, shallow analysis is followed by quick lock-in to a decision that sweeps aside all the other forms the project could take.
When people are asked to make a “best-guess” scenario—the scenario most likely to occur—what they come up with is generally indistinguishable from what they settle on when asked for a “best-case” scenario.[20]
“Many decisions and actions are reversible and do not need extensive study. We value calculated risk taking.” Notice, however, that Bezos carefully limited the bias for action to decisions that are “reversible.”
people in power, which includes executives deciding about big projects, prefer to go with the quick flow of availability bias, as opposed to the slow effort of planning.[23]
Planning is working on the project. Progress in planning is progress on the project, often the most cost-effective progress you can achieve.
Projects are often started by jumping straight to a solution, even a specific technology. That’s the wrong place to begin. You want to start by asking questions and considering alternatives. At the outset, always assume that there is more to learn. Start with the most basic question of all: Why?
In contrast, good planning explores, imagines, analyzes, tests, and iterates. That takes time. Thus, slow is a consequence of doing planning right, not a cause. The cause of good planning is the range and depth of the questions it asks and the imagination and the rigor of the answers it delivers. Notice that I put “questions” before “answers.” It’s self-evident that questions come before answers. Or rather, it should be self-evident. Unfortunately, it’s not. Projects routinely start with answers, not questions.
Projects are not goals in themselves. Projects are how goals are achieved.
What sets good planning apart from the rest is something completely different. It is captured by a Latin verb, experiri. Experiri means “to try,” “to test,” or “to prove.” It is the origin of two wonderful words in English: experiment and experience.
the old Latin saying goes, “Repetitio est mater studiorum”—“Repetition is the mother of learning.”
for every other aspect of the building, from the structural integrity (Will it stand?) to the functionality of the electrical and plumbing systems (Will it work?) and the budget (Can we afford
Planning is iteration and learning before you deliver at full scale, with careful, demanding, extensive testing producing a plan that increases the odds of the delivery going smoothly and swiftly.
Age reflects time, and time enables experience.
Aristotle said that experience is “the fruit of years” and argued that it is the source of what he called “phronesis”—the “practical wisdom” that allows us to see what is good for people and to make it happen,
good plan, as I said, is one that maximizes experience or experimentation; a great plan is one that does both. And the best plan? That’s one that maximizes experience and experimentation—and is drafted and delivered by a project leader and team with phronesis.
This is all uniqueness bias talking, wanting to be reintroduced into your decisions when you’re trying to eliminate it. Don’t listen to it. Keep the process simple: Define the class broadly. Err on the side of inclusion. And adjust the average only when there are compelling reasons to do so, which means that data exist that support the adjustment. When in doubt, skip adjustment altogether. The class mean is the anchor, and the anchor is your forecast. That’s very simple, yes. But simple is good; it keeps out bias.
President Franklin Roosevelt got it right when he said, “Lost ground can always be regained—lost time never.”[28]
A 2010 meta-analysis of seventy-six studies found that stress is particularly corrosive in two circumstances: when we feel that the situation is mostly beyond our control and when we feel that others are judging our competence.
The word deadline comes from the American Civil War, when prison camps set boundaries and any prisoner who crossed a line was shot.[5]
With a shared sense of identity, purpose, and standards, open communication is easier, but BAA further cultivated the feeling that everyone on the project had both a right and a responsibility to speak up. Everyone knew “you had the backing of BAA” if you wanted to say something,
Modularity delivers faster, cheaper, and better, making it valuable for all project types and sizes. But for building at a truly huge scale—the scale that transforms cities, countries, even the world—modularity is not just valuable, it’s indispensable.
Modularity is a clunky word for the elegant idea of big things made from small things.
As the old Latin saying goes, “Repetitio est mater studiorum”—“Repetition is the mother of learning.”
Heuristics are fast and frugal rules of thumb used to simplify complex decisions. The word has its origin in the ancient Greek word Eureka!, the cry of joy and satisfaction when one finds or discovers something.[1]
When possible, hire a masterbuilder. And the masterbuilder’s team.
Asking why you’re doing your project will focus you on what matters, your ultimate purpose, and your result. This goes into the box on the right of your project chart. As the project sails into a storm of events and details, good leaders never lose sight of the ultimate result.
Big is best built from small.
You want to limit your exposure to this. You do it by taking all the time necessary to create a detailed, tested plan. Planning is relatively cheap and safe; delivering is expensive and dangerous. Good planning boosts the odds of a quick, effective delivery, keeping the window on risk small and closing it as soon as possible.
Think of your project as “one of those,” gather data, and learn from all the experience those numbers represent by making reference-class forecasts. Use the same focus to spot and mitigate risks. Switching the focus from your project to the class your project belongs to will lead, paradoxically, to a more accurate understanding of your project.
Successful project leaders think like that; they focus on not losing, every day, while keeping a keen eye on the prize, the goal they are trying to achieve.
Build your bridges before you need them.
Aristotle defined phronesis as the dual ability to see what things are good for people and to get those things done.
If you’re the sponsor or project leader, your key question should be “Can we afford this risk?” and if not, “Should we walk away or can we reduce the risk?”
