You may think, as most people do, that the solution is to look more closely at your kitchen renovation, identify all the things that could possibly go wrong, and work them into your forecast. It’s not. Spotting ways that things can go wrong is important because it enables you to reduce or eliminate risks or mitigate them, as I’ll discuss below. But it won’t get you the foolproof forecast you want, for the simple reason that no matter how many risks you can identify, there are always many more that you can’t. They are the “unknown unknowns,”
