The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny

by William Strauss

Even if a cycle of history does not violate free will, some troublesome questions remain: They go by the name of fortune, chaos, or accident. How can the saeculum coexist with all of history’s chance events and trends? Who could have predicted the steamship and locomotive? Or the stock crash on Black Tuesday? Or the sneak attack on Pearl Harbor? Or the Watergate burglary? Or the invention of the microcomputer? How can any theory of social change predict such things? The answer is simple: The saeculum neither predicts them nor precludes them. Yes, history always dishes out accidents. But, for the saeculum, what matters most are not the accidents themselves, but rather society’s response to them. To understand how this works, select an accident, transport it to another decade, and try to replay its effect. Move the Watergate break-in back forty years: Would circa-1934 America have been receptive to a pair of G.I. reporters eager to bring down a Missionary president recently elected by an enormous landslide? Of course not. Or move the Great Depression forward forty years: Would circa-1974 Boomers have coped with economic bust by cheerfully donning uniforms, joining paramilitary public works programs, and building a TVA? Again, not likely.