The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny

by William Strauss

Guided by this seasonal clock, Bill and I understood that in 1997 America was roughly a decade away from the end of its Third Turning or fall season. Third Turnings are always eras of robust individualism, raucous commercialism, social fragmentation, truculent moralism, weakening community, and pervasive civic drift. In this respect, the 1990s had much in common with the mood that prevailed in America during earlier Third Turnings—for example, in the 1920s, 1850s, or the 1760s. They, too, were decades of cynicism, bad manners, and personal risk-taking. During every one of those earlier Third Turning decades, Americans felt as if they were drifting toward a waterfall. And, as it turned out, they were.