How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors Behind Every Successful Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration

by Professor Bent Flyvbjerg

Notice that these big, dramatic events, which are easily capable of damaging a project so badly that it delivers a black swan outcome, are themselves low probability and high consequence. That is, they are black swans. So a black swan crashing through the window of vulnerability may itself cause a black swan outcome.