Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World

by Liaquat Ahamed

The price for being a speculator was that all these miscalculations wrought havoc on his net worth. By the middle of 1929, he had lost almost three-quarters of his money. The only saving grace was that in order to meet his margin payments, he was forced to liquidate much of his stock por...

The role of Cassandra was instead taken over by Montagu Norman. Of all the various flashpoints ready to detonate in the world economy that fateful spring and summer—Germany teetering on the brink of default, the shortage of gold, ...

chronically weak sterling held hostage by the Banque de France—he found it hard to tell whic...

Germany, now locked out of the American market, grabbed at any and every source of credit on which it could lay its hands.

Whereas Gulbenkian, nicknamed “Mr. Five Percent,” dealt in Middle East oil rights and Zaharoff in arms, Kreuger manufactured nothing grander or more threatening than plain little matches.

The U.S. stock market meanwhile refused to pay attention to either the rising cost of money around the world or the first signs of slowdown abroad. In June, it broke out on the upside. As reports of outstanding corporate earnings poured in, the Dow kept going up. In June it rose 34 points and another 16 in July.

Babson had built his forecasting method around two somewhat antithetical notions: that the “ups and downs” of the economy “operate according to definite laws” derivable from Newton’s third law of motion and that emotions were “the most important factor in causing the business cycle.”

Professor Fisher declared, “Stock prices are not too high, and Wall Street will not experience anything in the nature of a crash.” A noted “student” of the market, he based his assessment on the assumption that the future would be much like the recent past, that profits would continue to grow at over 10 percent as they had done over the previous five years. It was an early example of the pitfalls of placing too much faith in the abilities of mathematicians, with their flawed models, to beat the market. Simple commonsense techniques for valuing equities such as those Babson relied on—for example, positing that prices should move in tandem with dividends—indicated that stocks were some 30 to 40 percent overvalued.

The official chronicler of business cycles in the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research, a not-for-profit group founded in 1920, would declare, though many months later, that a recession had set in that August. But in September, no one was aware of it. There were the odd signs of economic slowdown, especially in some of the more interest-rate-sensitive sectors—automobile sales had peaked and construction had been down all year, but most short-term indicators, for example, steel production or railroad freight car loadings, remained exceptionally strong.

the New York Times index of common stocks, reached its all time peak on September 19—though the Dow never did get quite back to 381.

Even the usually bearish Alexander Dana Noyes of the New York Times was skeptical of the forecast of a market collapse. It is “not perhaps surprising that the idea of an utterly disastrous and paralyzing crash . . . should have found few believers,” he wrote; after all, in contrast to previous episodes, the country now has “the power and protective resources of the Federal Reserve,” while the market was “guarded against the convulsions of old-time panics . . . by the country’s accumulation of gold.” Previous crashes had all been preceded by an extraneous shock of some sort, which broke the herd psychology. The crash of 1873 had been foreshadowed by the bankruptcy of Jay Cooke and Company. In 1893, it had been the failure of the National Cordage Company, while in 1907, it was the collapse of the Knickerbocker Trust Company. Noyes took comfort in the fact that no such event seemed remotely on hand.

On Friday, September 19, the empire of the British financier Clarence Hatry suddenly collapsed, leaving investors wit...

In 1929, with grand plans to rationalize the British steel industry, he acquired a major manufacturer, United Steel Limited, for $40 million in what would today be called a leveraged buyout. In June, his bankers withdrew their financing at the last moment. He spent the next few weeks scrambling for cash, even approaching Montagu Norman, for Bank of England help. Needless to say, Norman, who would have found a man like Hatry highly distasteful, refused, telling him that he had paid too much for United Steel. Having borrowed as much as he could against all of his companies, Hatry eventually resorted to petty fraud: forging a million dollars worth of municipal bonds to post as collateral against additional loans. Early in September, as rumors circulated that he was massively overextended, his companies’ shares plunged, and his bankers called in their loans. Recognizing that the game was up, Hatry went under in true British fashion. On September 18, he called upon his accountant, Sir Gilbert Garney, and told him of the forgery. After hearing him out, Sir Gilbert telephoned his old friend Sir Archibald Bodkin, the director of public prosecutions, to say that he had a group of City men who wished to come in to confess to fraud of a “stupendous” magnitude. Sir Archibald, after hearing that the sum involved was as high as $120 million—equivalent as a percentage of the British economy to the Enron imbroglio of 2001 in the United States—arranged for them to turn themselves in at his...

When New York opened on Friday, September 20, the market faltered, losing 8 points to close at 362. The following week the Bank of England, fearing that sterling might be imperiled by Hatry’s collapse, raised interest rates to 7.5 percent and the market tumbled a further 17 points.

Because the many British investors who had lost money with Hatry were forced to liquidate their U.S. stock positi...

out of the New York brokers’ loan market, the Dow came under mounting pressure, falling another 20 points over the week of September 30 to 325. In the space of two weeks, it ha...

Thomas Lamont of J. P. Morgan & Co.,

The meeting went on till 2:00 a.m. Harrison was adamant. “The Stock Exchange should stay open at all costs,” he told the gathering. Closing the stock market would not solve the problem, only postpone it and, by preventing transactions, might possibly prolong it and force even more bankruptcies. He proposed instead that the New York banks take over a good portion of brokers’ loans from those trying to pull out of the market. By thus stepping into the breach, they would head off panic selling and a complete meltdown. “I am ready to provide all the reserve funds that may be needed,” he reassured the bankers.

Over the next few days, as the Fed did just that, New York City banks took over $1 billion in brokers’ loan portfolios. It was an operation that did not receive the publicity of the Morgan consortium, but there is little doubt that by acting quickly and without hesitation, Harrison prevented not only an even worse stock collapse but most certainly forestalled a banking crisis.

Though the crash of October 1929 was by one count the eleventh panic to grip the stock market since the Black Friday of 1869 and was by almost any measure the most severe, it was the first...

last weeks of November, the Dow had settled at around 240—a 40 percent retreat over the eight weeks since late September. The bubble that had begun in early 1928 had lasted little more than a year and a half. By all indications, the effect of the October crash had merely been to squeeze out all the froth and return the stock market closer to its fair value.

the losses—$50

50 billion wiped off the value of stocks, equivalent to about 50 percent of GNP—and

Indeed, BusinessWeek, which had been one of the most vocal critics of the speculation on the way up, went one step further, insisting that the economy would be in even better shape now that the distracting bubble had burst. “For six years, American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game. . . . Now that irrelevant, alien, and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before.”

The immediate impact on the United States in fact proved to be much greater that anyone expected. Industrial production fell 5 percent in October and another 5 percent in November. Unemployment, which during the summer of 1929 had hovered at around 1.5 million, 3 percent of the workforce, shot up to close to 3 million by the spring of 1930. The country had become so emotionally invested in the vagaries of Wall Street that the psychological impact of the collapse turned out to be profound, particularly in consumer demand for expensive goods:

Car registrations across the country plummeted by 25 percent and radio sales in New York were said to have fallen by half.

Immediately after the crash, Hoover, who liked nothing better than emergencies, threw himself into action. He was one of the hardest-working presidents in the history of the office, at his desk by 8:30 a.m and still there into the early hours of the next morning. Within a month, his administration had pushed through an expansion in public works construction and submitted a proposal to Congress to cut the income tax rate by a flat 1.0 percent. The federal government, however, was then tiny—total expenditures amounted to $2.5 billion, only 2.5 percent of GDP—and the effect of the fiscal measures was to inject barely a few hundred million dollars, less than 0.5 of 1.0 percent of GDP into the economy.

Hoover had, therefore, to content himself with playing the part of chief economic cheerleader. Unfortunately, it was a role for which he was poorly suited. Shy, insecure, and stiff, he was ill at ease with people and surrounded himself with yes-men. He was also “constitutionally gloomy,” according to William Allen White, “a congenital pessimist who always saw the doleful side of any situation.” Unable to inspire confidence or optimism, he resorted, according to the Nation magazine, to “trying to conjure up the genie of prosperity by invocations” that things were about to get better.

On December 14, 1929, barely six weeks after the crash, he declared that the volume of shopping indicated that country was “back to normal.” On March 7, 1930, he predicted that the worst effects would be over “during the next sixty da...

To some degree he was caught in a dilemma that all political leaders face when they pronounce upon the economic situation. What they have to say about the economy affects its outcome—an analogue to Heisenberg’s principle. As a consequence, they have little choice but to restrict themselves to making f...

The task of trying to talk the economy up was complicated by the fact that it did not go down in a straight line. At several points along the way it seemed to stabilize. After falling in the last few months of 1929, it found a footing in the early months of 1930. The stock market even rallied back above 290, a rebound of 20 percent. And the Harvard Economic Society, which was one of the few outfits to have predicted the recession, now argued that the worst had passed. Clutching ...

Eventually, when the facts refused to obey Hoover’s forecasts, he started to make them up. He frequently claimed in press conferences that employment was on the rise when clearly it was not. The Census Bureau and the Labor Department, which were responsible for data on unemployment, found themselves under constant pressure to fudge their numbers. One expert quit in disgust over attempts by the administration to fix the figures.

Finally, even the chief of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was forced into retirement when he publicly disagreed with the administration’s official statements on unemployment.

In contrast to Hoover, Treasury Secretary Mellon refused even to make a show of joining the cheerleading. His view was that speculators who had lost money “deserved it” and should pay for their reckless behavior; the U.S. economy was fundamentally sound and would rebound of its own accord. In the meantime, he argued that the best policy was to “liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. . . . It will purge the rottenness out of the system . . . . People will work ha...

One group who seemed to have taken Mellon’s advice on liquidation to heart was the Russians. In 1930, desperately in need of foreign exchange, the Soviet government secretly decided to put its most treasured art works up for sale to its capitalist enemies. For Mellon, it was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to purchase a unique collection of art at throw-away prices, and he did not let it pass. Following a series of clandestine negotiations through art dealers in Berlin, London, and New York, Mellon arranged to purchase a total of twenty pieces. Each was a cloak-and-dagger operation. The money was wired to a dealer in Berlin, who placed it in a blocked account and paid out 10 percent to the Russians. Meanwhile, the pictures were surreptitiously removed from the Hermitage, in Saint Petersburg, the surrounding paintings repositioned to disguise the disappearance. They were then handed over at a secret rendezvous and shipped to Berlin for transport to the United States. In this way, during 1930 and into the early months of 1931, the secretary of the treasury spent almost $7 million of his money buying up half o...

It was probably the greatest single art purchase of the century. Leaving mundane matters of economic policy to...

became consumed by the whole transaction. On one occasion in September 1930, he was so engrossed in a discussion with one of his art dealers that he kept...

With the federal government unable and unwilling to act—or in Mellon’s case, perhaps otherwise occupied—the task of managing the declining economy fell almost entirely on the Fed. Between November 1929 and June 1930 the Fed eased monetary policy dramatically. It injected close to $500 million in cash into the banking system and cut rates from 6.0 percent to 2.5 percent—mostly the work of Harrison in New York. The Board in Washington only grudgingly registered the full force of what had happened. Not only did Harrison have to deal with its constant delaying tactics, but he also faced outright resistance from the majority of his fellow governors of the regional reser...

Most governors feared that “artificial” attempts to stimulate the economy by injecting liquidity into the banking system would not jump-start business activity, but just touch off another bout of speculation. Too much cheap credit had created the original bubble in the first place. Now that it had been pricked and stock prices were falling to more reasonable levels, why short-circuit the process, they asked, by making credit too cheap once again. As one argued, further easing would only result in a replay of the “1927 experiment, now quite generally . . . admitted to have been disastrous.” The recession was a direct consequence of the past overspeculation, during which money had been thro...

Because the notion of an active monetary policy to combat the business cycle was so novel and the knowledge of how the economy worked so primitive, debates among the various factions within the Fed became highly confused and at times even incomprehensible. In September 1930, Governor Norris, an otherwise highly competent and respected banker, found himself arguing at a Fed meeting that by e...

depression, when it was not wanted and could not be used, and will have to withdraw credit when it is wanted and can be used.” He failed to recognize that the logic of his premise would have led him to the oddly perverse recommendation that the Fed should contract c...

Without a common vocabulary for expressing ideas, Fed officials resorted to analogies. One of the governors likened any attempt by the Fed to revive the economy to a band desperately trying to keep the music going at a “marathon dance.” On another occasion, he compared it to a physician’s trying to bring a dead patient ...

In the early summer, the Fed stopped easing. It proved to be a mistake. For just as it went on hold, the economy embarked on a second down leg, industrial production falling by almost 10 percent between June and October. There is some debate about Harrison’s reasons. Some argue that he thought he had done enough. Having staved off catastrophe by pumping a large amount of money into the system and cutting rates to an unprecedented low level, he believed that he had been as aggressive as he could. Others argue that he was operating with what might be called a faulty speedometer for gauging monetary policy. The usual indicators that he relied upon suggested that conditions were very easy—short-term rates were truly low and banks flush with excess cash. The problem was that some of these measures were now giving off the wrong signals. For example, when banks overflowed with surplus cash, this was generally an index, in a more stable and settled economic environment, the Fed had pushed more than enough reserves into the syst...

IN SEPTEMBER 1930, Roy Young resigned as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board to become the head of the Boston Fed, a position that not only paid two and a half times as much—$30,000 as compared to $12,000—but

also carried some executive authority. Finding replacements on the Board had never been easy; in the middle of a growing depression, it was doubly hard. Luckily Hoover had exactly the right candidate and promptly phoned his old friend, the noted banker and government financier Eugene Meyer, to offer him the job, saying, “I won’t take no for an answer,” and hung up without even waiting for a reply. He did not have to. He knew his man.

Few people were more enthusiastic or better prepared to take on the task of running the Federal Reserve than Meyer, a complete contrast to the second-rate figures who had so far inhabited the Board. A successful financier, he had accumulated a large fortune by the age of thirty-five, had run not one but two government-backed financial institutions, and unlike most bankers, believed very strongly in activist g...

In January 1930, policy decisions for open market operations were shifted to a new twelve-man Open Market Policy Conference (OPMC), consisting of all the governors of the reserve banks. Each of these, of course, had to refer to his own nine-member board of directors. The old five-member committee (OMIC), renamed the Executive Committee of the OPMC, retained responsibility for execution. Now three separate groups were jockeying for power—one body, the OPMC, could initiate policy but could not execute; another, the Board, had to approve policy decisions but could not initiate them; and a third, the Executive Committee of the OPMC, implemented decisions within certain discretionary limits. At each stage policy could be vetoed or stymied. As a consequence, even though the two most prominent members of the Fed, Harrison and Meyer, both believed that it should be more aggressive, they were defeated by the system.

THE GREAT CRASH was greeted in Europe with a combination of schadenfreude and relief.

The hope was that all the European capital that had been sucked into Wall Street would return home, alleviating the pressure on European gold reserves, and allowing such countries as Britain and Germany to ease credit and restart their economies.

But of all the central bankers in Europe, Montagu Norman was the most relieved. The crash had arrived just in time to rescue sterling. Convinced that it had been the rise in British interest rates on September 26 that finally burst the bubble, he started claiming credit for the collapse. So relaxed was he about the events on Wall Street, that on the morning of October 29, Black Tuesday, while the financial world was falling apart, he kept his usual appointment for a sitting with artist Augustus John, who had been commissioned by the Bank of England to paint his portrait.