ARNOLD TOYNBEE, IN his magisterial review of the year’s events on behalf of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, would later compare the events of the summer of 1931 to the summer of 1914. Both began with relatively minor events far from the hub of the world that nevertheless set in train a cascade that plunged out of all control and brought down an entire world order. In 1914, it was the assassination of the Austrian heir presumptive, the archduke Franz Ferdinand, at Sarajevo. In 1931, it was the failure of the Credit Anstalt, the oldest and largest bank in Austria.
