Homeowners in flood plains, Wall Street firms, and major insurers alike all rely on the predictability of risk. With developments like ARkSTORM, Cyclone Giri, and the sudden increase in the rate of sea level rise (among others), risk models were categorizing the confluence of these exogenous calamities as a 37-sigma event, or 37 standard deviations away from the norm. How likely is a 37-sigma event? A modest 8-sigma is supposed to happen less than once in the history of the universe.
