They performed computer simulations, based on the data they had, of how transmissions may have occurred to produce the trees of relatedness they saw. They drew inferences. The Snohomish case probably did not spark the outbreaks in California, Connecticut, and elsewhere. Rather, that case was likely a dead end, with no onward transmission, thanks to quick, firm containment measures taken in Washington. And the Bavarian case probably did not spark the outbreak in Italy or anywhere else. It led to about fifteen other cases, after which the spread was contained. Both the WA1 strain and the BavPat1
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