It is the resulting fear of decline—not the optimism created by perpetual ascent—that frequently incites risky, belligerent behavior. When growth slows, anxious expansion often follows. When a country is surrounded by enemies, it may try reckless gambits to break the closing ring. Most important, conflict can occur even when there is no “hegemonic transition”: The real trap may come once a previously rising challenger realizes it won’t overtake its enemies. When a dissatisfied power’s window begins to close, when its leaders fear that they cannot deliver the glories they have promised, even a
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