The boldness here is remarkable: If this modern-day imperialism succeeds, China will rule over a new “sinosphere,” in which global networks of trade and innovation once dominated by the West will cluster around Beijing. This scenario keeps many American strategists up at night. But another scenario that could be just as troubling is if Beijing’s efforts succeed only partially, leaving China strong enough to scare and pressure many countries, but not strong enough to feel secure about its long-term prospects.

