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July 30 - August 28, 2023
Individualism, which favors protecting the rights of those who have historically been discriminated against, intertwines with the slow-life strategy of protection to tell Millennials whom to protect and whom to go after (although viewpoint can supplant race, as it did in Chappelle’s case). And of course, these ingredients all boil in the pot of the instant communication and mob mentality of the internet.
Gen X’ers are substantially more Republican than any other generation measured since 1952 in two different national surveys (see Figure 4.37). Their early years during the Reagan administration seem to have influenced their politics for the long haul.
Although the media often focuses on the battle of Boomers vs. Millennials, Gen X vs. Millennials also has the potential to split Americans along increasingly bitter political divides.
While it’s true that Boomers are a larger generation, their population exceeded Gen X’s by only 14% in 2021—yet Boomers had 68% more representatives in the House than Gen X, nearly five times more than you’d expect by population size alone. Both in the House and Senate, Gen X’ers are considerably underrepresented relative to their population, and Boomers are considerably overrepresented.
The charts here suggest another possibility: Gen X’ers have not moved into leadership because Boomers are blocking their way. Gen X is a small generation coming on the heels of an unusually large one, so the “pig in the python” Boomers are still filling the top leadership roles. Boomers’ continued dominance in leadership is also due to technology and the slower life it affords: With people living longer, healthier lives, Boomers are working later in life and taking longer to retire. Until they do, Gen X’ers will not have as many opportunities to be leaders.
While Gen X’ers turned the individualism of Boomers to the level of a blasé assumption, Millennials raised the bar: The individual self was not merely important; it was paramount. It was also, almost always, really awesome.
The average Millennial (born in 1987) was 8 when the internet was commercialized in 1995, 13 when home internet became more common around 2000, 19 when Facebook opened up to everyone in 2006, and 25 when the majority of Americans owned a smartphone in 2012.
In the 2020s, Millennials have gotten the hang of adulting: They are no longer “the young ones.” In March and April 2020, people used to thinking of all young adults as Millennials ran afoul of the inexorable passage of time when they complained that the “Millennials” on spring break from college were spreading COVID-19. Since Millennials were ages 26 to 40 at the time, those spring breakers were the next generation younger: Gen Z. Predictably, Twitter lost it. “Millennials. Aren’t. Going. On. Spring. Break. We. Are. Too. Old.,” tweeted one. “Millennial isn’t the blanket word for young people
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It’s not just perception that self-focused phrases were a new language, mostly unspoken before the 1990s. In the Google Books database of millions of books, phrases like “believe in yourself” and “just be yourself” became strikingly more common in American books during Millennials’ childhood and teen years (see Figure 5.1).
while Gen X’ers may have heard self-esteem discussed at school, Millennials heard it discussed virtually everywhere—by parents, doctors, coaches, and friends.
boosting was not just talk—it was backed up by action. At awards ceremonies, schools began giving awards to every child, not just the top performers, so everyone would feel good. Instead of having just the winning teams getting trophies, children’s sports teams began giving every child a trophy just for playing. My nephew had one of these in the 2000s: It was about two feet tall and was engraved with the words “Excellence in Participation.”
As far back as we have measures, and as both teens and young adults, Millennials are the most optimistic and self-confident generation in history.
They were told, in short, that they were awesome. Continuing trends originating when late Gen X’ers were in school, the number of high school seniors with A averages soared, and the number with C averages plummeted among Millennial high school seniors (see Figure 5.7). This was also the era when parents began pressuring teachers to give high school students better grades, suggesting grade inflation wasn’t just the teachers’ idea.
by the Millennial adolescence, the standard of thinking highly of yourself no matter what became part of the system: Teachers gave students better grades even though students were spending less time on homework. The boosting of empty self-esteem was no longer theoretical—it was real. Students started thinking they were smarter than others not because their ability had improved or they were putting in more hours studying, but because Boomer adults had decided they needed positive feedback. There were more A students not because more students mastered the material, but because parents and
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Of course, Millennials didn’t originate the trend toward positive self-views and high expectations—Boomers and Gen X’ers did. Millennials ratcheted it up a notch, but it wasn’t their idea in the first place to get participation trophies. So should we instead “blame” Boomers or Gen X’ers? Probably not; deciding whom to blame is rarely productive, especially as cultural changes are bigger than just one generation and bigger than individual people. Also, parents and coaches were not intentionally trying to overinflate kids’ egos; the culture of the time convinced them that giving more praise,
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As Millennials were school-aged kids, teens, and young adults, the old world was fading, and the new one beginning. Websites and apps slowly replaced the traditional ways of communicating and gathering information: music CDs, Moviefone, DVDs, newspapers, card catalogs, cameras with film, public pay phones, paper maps, phone books, faxes, Rolodexes. Boomers and Gen X’ers used these things, Millennials used them or have heard of them depending on their specific birth year, and Gen Z has never heard of more than half of them unless they watch old TV shows.
As of 2022, Facebook has nearly 3 billion active users worldwide, and Mark Zuckerberg is arguably the most famous American Millennial in the world as well as the only Millennial (as of 2022) who is the CEO of a Fortune 100 company.
Social media also explains a unique feature of Millennial social movements: They are decentralized, without leaders, and focused on words and ideas rather than single concrete goals.
Millennials are the first American generation in which more than 1 out of 3 had a four-year college degree by their late 20s, up from 1 out of 4 when Gen X’ers were in that age bracket (see Figure 5.12). Among women, the proportion with a college degree is edging closer to half every year.
The number of Hispanics with college degrees more than doubled since 2005, and the number of Blacks with college degrees doubled since 1990 (see Figure 5.13). There were especially large gains in Hispanics and Blacks with college degrees between 2015 and 2020 (and thus between those born in the late 1980s and those born in the early 1990s).
In short, Millennials are the most educated generation in American history. With society and technology growing more complex, and fewer jobs focusing on manual labor, more jobs require a college education. As a result, education takes longer and people start their adult lives later, slowing down the life trajectory. So it’s not that Millennials “killed” marriage or adulthood—it’s that college, a downstream effect of more technology, delays them both.
By 2019, households headed by Millennials actually made more money than Silents, Boomers, and Gen X’ers at the same age—and yes, that’s after the numbers are adjusted for inflation (see Figure 5.15). The median Millennial household made about $9,000 more than Gen X’ers at the same age, and about $10,000 more than Boomers. So Millennials were actually doing better than their parents’ generation, not worse.
Income was adjusted for inflation but was everything else? Cost of college, homes, food, etc.?
Millennials built significant wealth between 2015 and 2019. These gains leave Millennials in a much more positive financial position than young adult Gen X’ers in 2009; the economic recovery after the recession did not just benefit Boomers but also extended to younger adults, including Millennials (see Figure 5.20). Thus Millennials were still able to build significant wealth in the years after the recession.
The figures are nearly identical: 50% of Boomers owned their own home as young adults, compared to 48% of Millennials. Thus only about 5% fewer Millennials owned houses than Boomers at the same ages, hardly the stuff of headlines or social media wars (see Figure
More Millennials went to college and graduate school, so they started their careers later than Boomers and Gen X’ers. They are also likely to live longer. With the entire trajectory of adulthood slowed down, it makes sense that Millennials took a few more years to buy houses than previous generations.
Housing costs definitely increased, but only from Silents to Boomers to Gen X’ers. Between Gen X’ers and Millennials, housing costs actually declined (see Figure 5.22). In fact, Millennials were actually paying slightly less for housing in 2019 than Gen X’ers did in 2005.
However, a Millennial born in 1981 who bought a house in 2011 was getting a bargain. The value of the house would increase 40% over the first six years, and 49% in the first ten years. Those in their early 30s between 2010 and 2015 (born 1978 to 1985) timed the housing market very well.
Overall, the complaints about Millennials being screwed by the housing market were untrue until late 2020—before then, Gen X’ers bore the brunt of poor timing in the housing market. Millennials born in the early 1980s actually timed the market perfectly. So, at least up to late 2020, housing costs should not have been the reason why Millennials felt economically unlucky.
the idea that Black and Hispanic Millennials have been left out—that, for example, only White and Asian Millennials enjoyed income gains—is not true. The income of young adults of every racial and ethnic group has risen since 2014, including Blacks and Hispanics (see Figure 5.24).
Black and Hispanic Americans ages 35 to 44 (primarily Millennials) are making more money than Black and Hispanic Silents, Boomers, and Gen X’ers in those groups did at the same age, with incomes at all-time highs in recent years. Black and Hispanic 25- to 34-year-olds made considerably more in 2020 than they did in the 1980s and most of the 1990s, though Black young adults’ incomes fell a little short of their highs in the early 2000s. This doesn’t mean everything is rosy, especially given increases in college loan debt. However, it’s a far cry from the narrative that Black and Hispanic
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The median income of Americans with a four-year college degree has steadily risen while the income of those with only a high school degree or some college has fallen
In other words, Millennials overall have not gotten screwed by the economy, but those without college degrees have.
Millennials actually make more money than previous generations did at the same age, and that’s true across all racial and ethnic groups. But that obscures a startling fact: Every single penny of the rise in younger adults’ incomes is due to women’s incomes.
Because the income gain for women is larger than the income loss for men, the net result is higher incomes for Millennials overall than previous generations at the same age. And although men still make more money than women, the gender gap in incomes has narrowed considerably. While 25- to 34-year-old women in 1980 made about $25,000 a year less than men, by 2021 they made about $10,000 less than men.
This balancing act between salaries and childcare might be one of the reasons why Millennials are having fewer children (we’ll explore that more later). It might also be one of the primary reasons Millennials—at least Millennials with kids—feel they are not doing as well financially as their parents: They make more money, but have to spend more of that money on childcare.
When Boomers went to college, college tuition was lower relative to incomes, so more were able to pay for their education while working part-time jobs. The easiest way to piss off a Millennial or a Gen Z’er is to say something like “In my day, we just worked our way through college.” Well, in the Boomers’ day the University of California was tuition-free for state residents. Overall, the cost of attending college has more than doubled since the first Boomers arrived on campus in 1964, even after correcting for inflation (see Figure 5.27).
First, Millennials had high expectations as young adults—more than half, for example, expected to earn a graduate degree. Continuing a trend begun by Gen X’ers, many more Millennials expected to earn a graduate degree than actually would, and more thought they would work in a professional job than actually would (see Figure 4.10 in the Gen X chapter). The classic formula says that happiness equals reality minus expectations. So if expectations are high (and Millennial expectations were sky-high), then reality won’t measure up even if it’s pretty good. Even good outcomes can be disappointing if
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Third, online stories have endlessly repeated the idea that Millennials have gotten the economic shaft. “Millennials are doing great!” doesn’t get clicks. “Millennials got screwed!” does. Negative news stories, especially those that incite anger, get more traffic and thus make more money. Social media sites thrive when people get riled up and spend more time on the site. As Gen X author Meghan Daum puts it, “Social media rewards language that is not just hyperbolic but apocalyptic.” Stories bemoaning Millennials’ anemic earnings got lots of traffic online, while the Pew Research Center’s more
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The end result: More Millennials believe they got screwed economically, which has downstream consequences for their political attitudes and values. More feel that the system isn’t working. More will be attracted to government policies that alleviate financial burdens, such as college loan forgiveness, childcare subsidies, and housing subsidies. More will criticize capitalism and champion socialism. In a 2018 Gallup poll surveying Millennials and Gen Z, more 18- to 29-year-olds had a positive view of socialism (51%) than had a positive view of capitalism (45%).
The key issue for the U.S. economy in the early 2020s, as it turned out, wasn’t young people doing poorly—it was young people doing so well that supply couldn’t keep up and inflation surged. Oddly, Millennials may end up in a more precarious economic position in the mid-2020s precisely because they did so well in the early 2020s that many industries couldn’t meet demand.
Millennials are the first generation in American history in which the majority of 25- to 39-year-olds are not married (see Figure 5.29).
young adults are more likely to live alone, with roommates, or with their parents. About 30% more Millennials live alone or with roommates than when their Boomer parents were that age in the early 1980s. Twice as many Millennial young adults lived with their parents compared to Boomers—a record 17% in 2020. Although this is a big shift, that number is smaller than you’d expect given all the hand-wringing about Millennials living with their parents—more than 8 out of 10 are not.
fewer Millennials are divorced than Boomers at the same age, with the number of divorced women in their late 30s falling 42% between 1990 and 2020. If Millennials are killing things, one of the things they are killing is divorce.
Millennials are more likely to have a baby in their early 30s than in their late 20s, shifting the life cycle later as new parents are older. In addition, the birth rate for 35- to 44-year-old women in 2021 was higher than it had been since the early 1960s. These trends continue the slow-life strategy, as older parents have fewer children and tend to protect them more carefully.
This is the luxury of the modern era: Birth control technology makes having children a choice, and individualism makes the choice not to have children acceptable. It’s a fundamental shift in values from the young adulthood of the Silents, when people who didn’t have children were looked upon as strange.
The link between higher income and fewer kids holds over time as well. Between 2010 and 2019, birth rates fell the most in U.S. counties with strong job growth—exactly the opposite of what you’d expect if money or lack of jobs was holding people back from having kids. A recent paper by three economists concluded that economic factors, including the cost of rent and student loan debt, were not the major driver of falling birth rates. Instead it was “shifting priorities across cohorts of young adults”—in other words, generational differences in attitudes.
Millennial families lose more income than previous generations did when women leave the workforce to care for children. However, the economists’ paper found that states with rising childcare costs did not show bigger declines in birth rates—if anything, the opposite was true, suggesting the rise in childcare costs might have been driven by higher birth rates and thus more demand.
Millennials, often assumed to be the Tinder generation, are actually less likely to be sexually active than previous generations. Compared to Gen X’ers at the same age, more than twice as many Millennials in their 20s had not had sex as an adult (see Figure 5.36).
In short: The generation that popularized Tinder actually includes more people who aren’t having sex. What started as a sex drought has turned into scorched earth. There’s a name for men who don’t have sex but want to: incels (short for involuntary celibates). The group comes with its own lingo, such as “Chads” (men who are successful in dating women) and “Stacies” (attractive women). Some
In previous generations, normies would meet each other and get married, often in their early 20s. In the age of later marriage and Tinder, normies are instead at home on their phones. From the looks of the incel and femcel sites, they are at home hating each other.
