In the first months of 2012, there was every chance the hull insurers would ignore the warning signs and pay the Brillante claim, just as the Lloyd’s market had done with countless other suspicious casualties over the years. In that scenario, Iliopoulos would have taken the money, satisfied his creditors, and carried on squeezing profit out of his aging fleet. Veale would have gone back to tracing pirates’ bank accounts, or whatever else came across his desk at EBIS. Talbot would have split the cost with the other nine insurers named on the war risks policy and barely noticed the loss. The
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