One of the early mistakes teams made was in thinking about the math wrong. Teams were comparing the value of three-point shots versus (all) two-point shots, rather than the value of three-point shots versus two-point shots that are taken just inside the three-point line. The disparity in expected value really grows when you look at the choice that players actually have to make, which is between a perimeter two-pointer or a slightly longer three-point attempt. The answer to that comparison is clear and was clear within a decade of the league’s adoption of the rule: Getting three points instead
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