The World: A Family History of Humanity

by Simon Sebag Montefiore

In an astonishing conversation, Hirohito, now forty-four, and his commanders decided to risk everything rather than give up any of their expansionist ambitions. ‘If we open hostilities,’ asked Hirohito, ‘will our operations have a probability of success?’ ‘Yes,’ answered General Hajime Sugiyama, his chief of staff. ‘At the time of the China Incident [invasion] the army told me we’d achieve peace after one blow. Sugiyama, you were army minister then.’ ‘We met unexpected difficulties…’ ‘Didn’t I caution you?’ asked Hirohito. ‘Are you lying to me, Sugiyama?’ ‘Your Majesty?’ asked naval chief Admiral Nagano. ‘Proceed.’ ‘There’s no 100 per cent probability of victory…Assume there’s a sick person and we leave him; he’ll die. But if the doctor’s diagnosis offers 70 per cent survival if we operate, then don’t you think we must try surgery? And if after surgery the patient dies, one must say it was meant to be.’ ‘All right.’